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Both the Minnesota Twins (67-62) and Chicago White Sox (65-66) are in the mix to win the AL Central entering their 3-game series in Chicago. The Twins are just 1 game behind the Cleveland Guardians while the White Sox are 4 games back.
Minnesota recently had its 5-game streak snapped in a 6-5 loss to the Boston Red Sox Wednesday. Chicago is just 3-7 in the last 10 games but won back-to-back vs. the Kansas City Royals entering Friday.
Head over to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the MINNESOTA TWINS (-135) to win the series opener with the Chicago White Sox (+115). The Twins have edges in the starting and hitting matchups and this is a better spot for Minnesota.
Sonny Gray Is Having A Bounce-Back Season
Twins starting RHP Sonny Gray (7-4, 3.04 ERA) has been the ace of their staff. He was mediocre in 2020-21 (12-12, 4.05 ERA) while pitching for the Cincinnati Reds after making the NL All-Star team in his 1st season in Cincy.
Gray has been locked in for Minnesota’s AL Central race. Since the All-Star break, Gray is 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA. He’s allowed 3 or fewer earned runs (ER) in each outing.
We might be getting a good price on Gray because he gave up 6 ER vs. the White Sox earlier this season. However, Chicago’s lineup is terrible against right-handed pitching.
For instance, the White Sox are 20th in wRC+ (95), 22nd in wOBA (.302), 29th in ISO (.120) and 25th in hard-hit rate (28.8%), per FanGraphs. While the Twins have a 113 wRC+ (ranked 4th), .323 wOBA (7th), .166 ISO (7th) and a 33.9% hard-hit rate (4th).
Also, White Sox RHP Davis Martin (2-4, 4.62 ERA) is starting only because RHP Michael Kopech is on the IL. Martin grades in the 15th percentile or worse in expected ERA over wOBA, K% and exit velocity, according to Statcast.
However, Minnesota’s moneyline is the play instead of the First 5-Inning line since Chicago’s bullpen is subpar. Maybe the Twins need all 9 innings to beat the White Sox.
A ‘Good Spot’ For The Twins
Minnesota is 4-1 this season as road favorites with Gray on the mound. The Twins have a plus-38.5% return on investment (ROI) in those contests and an 8.80-2.40 average final score. Also, Minnesota is 3-1 when playing with a rest advantage. (The Twins had an off-day Thursday).
On the other hand, Chicago is 6-10 as home underdogs this season. The White Sox have a minus-19.5% ROI and are losing 6.88-4.38 on average in those contests. Finally, Chicago is 2-4 with a rest disadvantage and played on Thursday.
BET the MINNESOTA TWINS (-135) at DraftKings Sportsbook to handle business Friday vs. the Chicago White Sox (+115).
- A $135 bet on the Twins (-135) nets a $100 profit if Minnesota wins outright.
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