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The Cincinnati Reds (4-7) host the Philadelphia Phillies (4-8) at the Great American Ball Park for the start of a 4-game series and 1st pitch is 6:40 p.m. ET.
Neither team is playing well currently. The Phillies lost two of three at home to the Miami Marlins earlier this week. The Reds were swept by the Braves 3-0 in Atlanta Monday-Wednesday.
These clubs met last week in Philadelphia and the Phillies won the 3-game set 2-1. Both starters Thursday appeared in last week’s Phillies-Reds series and each had quality outings.
Philly starting LHP Bailey Falter (0-1, 2.61 ERA) pitched five innings while only allowing a solo home run, striking out two Reds and walking none in the Phillies’ 3-2 win Saturday.
Reds LHP Nick Lodolo (1-0, 1.50 ERA) was Cincy’s starter vs. Falter and the Phillies in that Saturday loss. Lodolo earned a no-decision but pitched 7-scoreless innings with a 12/0 K/BB rate and only 2 H.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
I know the Phillies made a miraculous run to the 2022 World Series and the Reds tied with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the worst record in the NL Central last season. But, Cincy is the right side for various reasons.
Neither lineup hits well vs. left-handed pitching and Philadelphia’s bullpen is trash. The Phillies’ relievers rank 27th in WAR, 29th in FIP (“fielding independent pitching”), and 27th in HR/9 rate, per FanGraphs.
Also, Lodolo was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft and a starter that a lot of MLB sharps bought stock in this offseason. I’m among those high on Lodolo.
Through two starts, Lodolo grades in the 86th-percentile or better in expected batting average, expected ERA over wOBA, chase rate, and whiff rate, according to Statcast.
Furthermore, the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Reds Thursday. Per VSIN, a slight majority of the bets at DraftKings are on the Phillies while a slight majority of the money is on the Reds.
Moreover, Pregame.com is reporting at the time of writing that the bets are nearly split in the consensus market but 85% of the money is on Cincy’s ML.
However, the sportsbooks are reacting to the cash instead of the public. Obviously. The Reds opened as slight ‘dogs at -105 and have been steamed up to the current number (-135).
The bottom line is the Reds being favorites over the defending NL champion Phillies after losing to them last week is all you need to know. Sportsbooks are begging for Philadelphia money and the public is falling for the trap.
BET: Cincy (-135) ML at DraftKings, up to -145
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