BET: Guardians, Bieber Even The Series With Mariners Friday

Vibes are high in Emerald City. The Seattle Mariners (67-57) and All-Star CF Julio Rodriguez signed a big 14-year, $200 million-ish guaranteed ($400 million after incentives) extension Friday.

Seattle is just 5-5 in the last 10 games but has a 2.5-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles for the 3rd and final AL Wild Card berth.

The Cleveland Guardians (66-56) send out their Cy Young-winning ace to rain on Seattle’s party. Cleveland beat Seattle 3-1 in the series opener Friday but the Mariners still lead the season series 4-3.

BET the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians (-115), Mariners (-105)
  • Run Line (RL): Guardians -1.5 (+160), Mariners +1.5 (-190)
  • Total: 6.5 — Over (-125), Under (+105) 
Cleveland Guardians Shane Bieber pitches against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Getty Images)

Starters

Cleveland: RHP Shane Bieber is 8-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 145 innings pitched (IP) across 23 starts.

  • 3.45 expected ERA (xERA), 24.7% K-rate, 5.5% BB-rate (19.2% K-BB%) and 0.68 home runs per nine (HR/9).

Seattle: RHP Logan Gilbert is 10-5 with a 3.52 ERA in 143 1/3 IP over 25 starts.

  • 4.26 xERA, 21.9% K-rate, 6.8% BB-rate (15.0% K-BB%) and 1.07 HR/9.

Handicap

There’s been significant sharp line movement pushing Cleveland from a slight road ‘dog up to a favorite. Only 52% of the cash is on the Guardians at the time of publishing, per Pregame.com.

But, sportsbooks have moved Cleveland’s ML from +105 on the opener up to the current price. This suggests oddsmakers are booking faces. Meaning the House is moving lines based on who’s better instead of liability.

Furthermore, the Guardians have an edge in the starting and relief pitching matchup Friday. Cleveland is 7-2 this season as road favorites with Bieber as the starter and a plus-30.9% ROI. Cleveland’s bullpen is one of MLB’s best. It ranks top-10 in WAR, ERA, WHIP and K/BB rate, per FanGraphs.

Also, the pitching matchup is a heavy factor for the Guardians-Mariners handicap since there’s a low total (6.5). In fact, the Guardians are 26-13 in Bieber’s career as a road favorite with the total set at 7.5 or lower.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and WAGER on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (-115).

  • A $115 bet on the Guardians (-115) nets a $100 profit if Cleveland beats the Mariners.

Written by Geoff Clark

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