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San Francisco Giants (59-61) have regressed year over year after winning 107 games in 2021. The Giants are performing worse in every facet of the game and play in a tough NL West.
The Giants are trying to prevent a 3-game sweep at their last-place division-mate Colorado Rockies (53-69) Sunday in Coors Field. The Rockies won the 1st two games of the series by a combined score of 11-7.
But, San Francisco has a 3-phase edge over Colorado in starting and relief pitching and hitting. BET the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook vs. the Rockies (+110).
Pitching Matchup Favors San Francisco
The Giants have an edge in both the starting and relief pitching departments. San Francisco starting RHP Jakob Junis (4-3, 3.53 ERA) is good on short rest and Colorado starting LHP Kyle Freehand’s worst rest split (7-8, 4.82 ERA) is four days.
Freeland is 3-2 in eight starts on four days’ rest but has a 5.84 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 2.00 K/BB rate. Junis is 3-1 in five starts on four days’ rest with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 3.70 K/BB rate.
On top of that, Freehand pitches terribly at home and grades out poorly in most advanced pitching metrics. Freeland’s 6.00 home ERA, 1.58 home WHIP and 2.00 K/BB rate are worse than his road marks of 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 2.70 K/BB rate.
Also, Freeland ranks in the 22nd percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected ERA over wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and whiff rate, according to Statcast.
Finally, Colorado’s bullpen is fatigued and atrocious anyhow. The Rockies relievers have the 3rd-worst xFIP and 2nd-worst WHIP and ERA in MLB, according to FanGraphs.
Giants Light Up Lefties, Rockies Struggle vs. Righties
San Francisco’s lineup ranks in the top 10 in several advanced hitting categories vs. left-handed pitching including wRC+, wOBA and ISO, per FanGraphs.
Colorado’s lineup is 27th in wRC+ and 25th in ISO vs. right-handed pitching. The Giants score 5.16 runs per 9 (R/9) against lefties and the Rockies score 4.24 R/9 vs. righties.
Furthermore, Junis’s slider is one of the more effective pitches in baseball and has a minus-10 run value (RV) per Statcast. The heart of Colorado’s order (three through five hitters) all have a minus RV vs. the slider.
It’s a Good Spot For Giants
San Francisco is 8-4 as road favorites vs. Colorado in Coors Field since the beginning of last season with an average final score of Giants 6.83, Rockies 4.58. The Giants have a plus-6.8% return on investment in those meetings.
I’d TAKE the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook and all the way up to -145. A $130 bet earns a $100 profit if the San Francisco Giants win.
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