Videos by OutKick
I’m going to use a few old-school handicapping angles in my betting breakdown of the No. 9 Baylor Bears (1-0) Week 2 visit to the No. 21 BYU Cougars (1-0) Saturday.
BYU (-10.5) beat up on South Florida 50-21 in Week 1, easily covering as road favorites. The Cougars outgained the Bulls by 283 total yards and went into halftime with a 38-7 lead. But, BYU will be without its top-two wideouts definitely.
Baylor (-42.5) crushed Albany 69-10 Saturday and is the defending Big XII champions. However, the Bears lost their dual-threat starting quarterback, three leading rushers and best wide receiver this offseason.
With that in mind, BET the BYU COUGARS (-135) at DraftKings Sportsbook since their price didn’t move much based on the injury news. Also, Baylor is getting square money.
- Moneyline (ML): Baylor (+115), BYU (-135)
- ATS: Baylor -2.5 (-105), BYU -2.5 (-115)
- Total (O/U) — 54.5 — O: -110, U: -110
BYU Is The ‘Sharp’ Play
The Cougars opened as 3-point favorites against a Baylor team ranks in the top-10 that won its conference last season and beat Ole Miss in the 2021 Sugar Bowl 21-7.
No. 9 Baylor getting points vs. a non-Power 5 team was always going to get public action. But, when BYU announced it’ll be without its top-two receivers the line hardly moved.
The reason is a BYU squad that’s won 21 games over the last two seasons is second in returning production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly.
BYU’s starting quarterback from last season is back as are four of its five starting offensive linemen. This includes LT Blake Freeland who had the second-best pass-blocking grade in college football last season, per Pro Football Focus.
On the other hand, Baylor ranks 99th in returning production. Furthermore, Baylor’s defense ranks 113th out of 131 charted FBS teams in returning production.
Baylor’s leading pass rusher and an All-American safety from last year’s team went to the NFL. Again, the Bears lost their entire offensive core from 2021.
The bottom line is that BYU’s offensive line will give Cougars QB Jaren Hall enough time to dice up a Baylor secondary replacing two starters.
Not only this but the betting splits give me even more confidence in my pro-BYU wager.
There’s a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario shaping up in the ML market of Baylor-BYU. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the cash is on BYU whereas nearly 70% of the bets placed are on Baylor.
Since professional bettors put up more dough than you or I, it’s typically wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.
PS: Betting MLB games at a high volume has desensitized me to betting MLs set at -150 or higher. Look at MLs as if they were probabilities. For instance, BYU (-135) has an implied win probability of 57.5%. Essentially, I’m saying the Cougars beat Baylor more than 58% of the time.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the BYU COUGARS (-135).
- A $135 bet on BYU (-135) returns a $100 profit if the Cougars beat Baylor outright.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
First-time DraftKings users can get up to a $1,000 deposit bonus and receive a 20% first deposit match up to $1,000 when they sign up. New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.