MLB’s Tuesday marquee matchup pits the Milwaukee Brewers (65-56) against the white-hot Los Angeles Dodgers (84-37) at Dodger Stadium.
Let’s plug our noses and BET BREWERS (+130) with Burnes on the bump at DraftKings Sportsbook. It’ll be a nail-biter with two of the NL’s best starters going mano a mano.
We’re on the Brew Crew since they need the game like blood and Burnes is the better starter despite basic numbers saying otherwise. Also, the oddsmakers could be laying a trap with the Dodgers (-150).
RHP Corbin Burnes (9-5, 2.48 ERA), Brewers.
- Road splits: 4-2 in 11 starts with a 1.94 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and five home runs (HR) allowed in 69 2/3 innings.
- Last start vs. Dodgers: Win, 5-3, at home Aug. 18 with three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts.
RHP Tony Gonsolin (15-1, 2.12 ERA), Dodgers.
- Home splits: 8-1 in 10 starts with a 1.53 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and five HRs surrendered in 59 innings.
- Last start vs. Brewers: Win, 2-1, Aug. 17 in Milwaukee, throwing 7-scoreless innings with two hits, one walk and eight strikeouts.
On paper, Gonsolin and the Dodgers look like the smarter bet. Gonsolin leads MLB in WHIP (0.86) and hits per nine (5.3) but the market ranks Burnes as the better starter. Burnes has the 2nd-best odds to win the NL Cy Young (+550) while Gonsolin is 3rd (+1200) at DraftKings.
More importantly, Burnes has the stronger pitching peripherals. He leads the NL in xFIP, K-BB% and SIERA, according to FanGraphs. Also, Burnes ranks better than Gonsolin in exit velocity, K%, whiff rate, fastball spin and velocity and expected ERA over wOBA, per Statcast.
But, the foundation of my “Brewers upsetting the Dodgers” handicap is the suspicious line or lack thereof.
Fading the Dodgers at this point is the riskiest bet in MLB. The Dodgers are juggernauts and DraftKings makes L.A. the favorite to win the World Series (+325).
The Dodgers are public darlings and more than 90% of the action is on L.A. at the time of publishing, according to Pregame.com. However, the Dodgers (-150) moneyline hasn’t budged off the opener.
This is called a “line freeze”. In this case, the line freeze could be the House baiting bettors into staking more on the Dodgers. Obviously, the last thing we want to do is to play into the sportsbooks’ hands.
Lastly, this line freeze is noteworthy because the Dodgers are crushing opponents. L.A. has lost back-to-back games since the end of July and is 16-4 in August, which includes three Gonsolin wins.
In my opinion, the sportsbooks are begging for more Dodgers money. Let’s go the other way and BET MILWAUKEE BREWERS (+130) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- A $100 wager on the Brewers (+130) returns a $130 profit if Milwaukee upsets L.A.
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