Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

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Look, it won’t happen every time but we’ve certainly been profitable so far this season and had a 9.5u win on Monday Night Football. Let’s keep this train rolling.

Thursday Night Football has been great so far this season with some really fun matchups. This week we get the last two number one overall picks in the NFL Draft squaring off against each other in Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow. Through just three games, Trevor Lawrence has looked like he is struggling to adjust to the pro game. Already throwing seven interceptions, and just five touchdowns, Lawrence needs to quickly establish a better rapport with receivers and learn the plays. Some of this falls on Urban Meyer as well as he needs to put Lawrence in a better situation to win. The Jaguars are unlikely to lose all 17 games, but winning more than two or three is also just as unlikely in my opinion.

The Bengals have been in every game they’ve played and even won two of the three they started. Joe Burrow looks great since his return from knee surgery. Burrow has already connected with LSU standout Ja’Marr Chase for four touchdowns on the season. One thing to mention though, of those four touchdowns, only one came in the red zone. Outside of that, it is clear that Burrow likes having his former college wide receiver, but he’s spread the targets around fairly evenly. Joe Mixon has also looked great so far for the Bengals. I’m genuinely surprised that the Bengals aren’t sitting at 3-0, but they didn’t win against the Bears.

On a short week, I don’t think the Jaguars are going to be ready for this game. This is an ideal game for a teaser play. I’m going to take them and the Titans, both 7.5 favorites and play a 4.5 teaser to get these games both down to -3. I’m much more comfortable with a -7 spread, but I will play the Bengals -7.5 at -108. The Jaguars haven’t lost a game by less than 10 points yet and even with both teams playing on Thursday night where anything can happen, I don’t think they keep this game very close.

I like Joe Mixon to be the star of this game – he is +410 to score 2+ touchdowns in the game. Mixon is the most likely red zone option for the Bengals, he is explosive, he is a playmaker. Burrow is always a threat with his arm, but Jacksonville has allowed five rushing touchdowns in the three games this season. I think there is good value on him to score 2+ touchdowns.

James Robinson had a great rookie campaign and is off to a decent sophomore year. I expect the Bengals to pressure Lawrence in hopes that he makes foolish mistakes. If that is the case, he will likely dump off to Robinson more than normal. I like him to have over 22.5 receiving yards at -114.

Written by David Troy

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