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There are normally one or two days in the calendar year that don’t have one of the four major sports playing – this year we had the NBA Finals on a day that normally doesn’t have one, the day after the MLB All-Star Game. We are ramping back up to full slate of sports with one game today between the Yankees and Red Sox. That can often mean forcing a bet because you want action. If it does, you probably need help. Luckily, I’m here to help! (Seriously, though, get help if you need it.)
The Yankees have yet to name a starter, which makes this more difficult. Despite that, FanDuel Sportsbook does have lines posted, which is awesome because we usually have to wait when there is an undecided starter. The Red Sox have named Eduardo Rodriguez their starting pitcher. He’s been very hittable and in 12 road starts has a 5.70 ERA. Hitters are batting .306 against him. The Yankees specifically have had success against him to the tune of .272 average and scored five runs against him in the two starts he’s had this season.
For the game, I think I’m leaning towards the Yankees to win, and I might make a play on this sooner rather than later. Cole could be the starter tonight if they want him to be, and there is no way you could make a Yankees moneyline bet at -120 with him starting against Rodriguez. So blindly hoping he starts is pushing me to take the Yankees on the moneyline. If it is someone like Jordan Montgomery, the value isn’t as strong, but I do think there is still value in playing him at -120.
Back to Rodriguez for a second, I am taking him to get over 5.5 strikeouts. The Yankees will be off a layoff (as will everyone), and that gives a slight advantage to the pitcher in my opinion. Their timing might be just a bit off. Rodriguez averages five strikeouts per game, and in his last ten games, he went over 5.5 seven times. In his two previous starts against the Yankees, he struck out seven and eight hitters, respectively.
A couple of other smaller play props I like… Gleyber Torres is +450 to hit a home run tonight. In his career, he has three home runs against Rodriguez in 19 career at-bats. The juice is so high on the “to record a hit” bets that there really isn’t any value, but we can do a small Same Game Parlay on it where Torres, LeMahieu, and Volt record a hit. The three of them are all hitting over .300 against Rodriguez and combined the odds are +135.