Baker Mayfield Within Reach Of Becoming A Franchise QB For Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The point of making Baker Mayfield the first overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft, ahead of such human highlight reels as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, was for a franchise quarterback to walk through those doors and lead a team for a decade or more.
But what the Cleveland Browns, who made that fateful pick, often got was a bridge quarterback who disappointed too often for their liking.
So Mayfield was sent off to the Carolina Panthers and performed like a bridge quarterback. Then he went to the Los Angeles Rams as a bridge quarterback. And this year he signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as, you guessed it, a bridge quarterback.
NEW ORLEANS, LA - OCTOBER 01: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrates during an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 1, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
Baker Mayfield Giving Buccaneers High Production
Except the guy who moved to Tampa isn't looking like a bridge quarterback now. He's playing like the franchise quarterback he was selected to be in 2018.
And if it continues through the end of this season, Baker Mayfield is finally going to be established as a franchise quarterback and will get the contract to prove it.
If that last sentence blows your mind, consider some facts:
Mayfield this season has been every bit as effective and productive as Allen, or Jackson, or a handful of other quarterbacks accepted into the same franchise quarterback club Mayfield was never admitted into before.
"He's meant everything," Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said Sunday of Mayfield's play following a victory over the Packers. "From a mental standpoint to a quarterback standpoint, making plays. From a toughness standpoint, from a leadership standpoint, he's done everything.
"He's checked all the boxes. He's doing all the right things now and I can't say enough about him."
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 17: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drops back to pass during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 17, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 34-20. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Mayfield, Buccaneers Pushing For Strong Finish
The Buccaneers have won three consecutive games. They're making a push for the NFC South division title, which would be their second in two years under Bowles.
In those consecutive wins that have raised the Bucs from a club headed for more offseason overhauling to a team tied for the division lead, Mayfield has thrown 7 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Yeah, nice ratio.
Mayfield said he'd spend Monday trying to move on to the next game. But that doesn't rewrite him authoring his best game of the season and perhaps the best game of his career on Sunday.
Against the Packers, in Green Bay where he struggled on previous trips, Mayfield threw 4 TD passes. He completed 22 of 28 passes for 381 yards. Oh, and he posted a 158.3 quarterback rating.
That's a perfect rating.
Afterward Mayfield was answering questions about re-establishing himself as a franchise quarterback. Which means the possibility is on other people's minds.
"I'm having fun playing football," Mayfield replied. "I wouldn't say I'm satisfied by any means. Still got ball left. Still have playoffs in mind. And so, still hungry."
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 17: Baker Mayfield #6 and Robert Hainsey #70 both of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers celebrate after Mayfield's touchdown pass during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on December 17, 2023 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Mayfield Comparable To Established Starters
Let's be clear: Mayfield has been feeding quite well off defenses this season, particularly if one compares his production to the NFL's established starting quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes has 25 touchdowns passes and 13 interceptions. Mayfield has one fewer TD pass but also five fewer interceptions. And Mayfield has a higher quarterback rating.
Ravens coach John Harbaugh said Sunday night Jackson is the best quarterback in the NFL and perhaps an argument for that can be made. But there is no argument Mayfield has 7 more TD passes and only 1 more interception than Jackson.
Allen? Mayfield has two fewer passing touchdowns but also six fewer interceptions. And Mayfield has a higher quarterback rating.
Mayfield plays in a state where top quarterbacks are thriving. And his production is right there with Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence so far.
Tagovailoa has 25 TD passes and 10 interception. So Mayfield has one fewer TD pass and two fewer interceptions.
Lawrence, meanwhile, has fewer touchdown passes, more interceptions, and a lower quarterback rating than Mayfield.
None of this suggests Mayfield is better than any of these other quarterbacks. That's not it.
But he's producing on their level.
NEW ORLEANS, LA - OCTOBER 01: Todd Bowles of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on from the sideline during an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 1, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
Scenario For Buccaneers Keeping Their QB
And that raises the question what comes next? Mayfield, you see, is unsigned for next season.
So if he continues his current season arc, someone will offer him a good (not record-breaking but good) contract to be their starter. Something somewhat higher than the three-year deal that averages $25 million per season Geno Smith signed with Seattle last season.
The top quarterbacks average $50-$55 million per season. It might make sense to get Mayfield for $30 million per season on average.
Can that happen in Tampa?
The next three games will decide. If the Bucs can complete their push for the division title and a playoff spot it would be deeply surprising if Bowles isn't retained.
Bowles, you'll recall, told OutKick in the offseason he and Mayfield connected way back in 2018 during the pre-draft evaluation process.
"We kind of hit it off mentally," Bowles said.
So the two seemed tied together in that if the coach stays, the quarterback probably will. That's how it's supposed to work with successful programs and a player they view as a franchise quarterback.