Back White Sox In Division Game

Royals vs. White Sox, 8:10 ET

It might be May, but I feel like I'm in the dead of winter with how cold I've been with my baseball picks. Again, I stand by the work that goes into them, but nothing is more humbling than when you think you've read a game the right way and it doesn't go your way. I'm trying once again today. Fade or follow your call, but I think I've found a great way to play the Royals vs. White Sox today.

The Royals are actually worse than the White Sox, but in fairness to them, they have only two fewer wins. It is interesting to see the team stats align against each other because the Royals align pretty well with the White Sox. The Royals have a slightly lower batting average (.234 vs. .244). Overall, the offenses match closely, but I think anyone in their right might would want to take the Sox lineup over the Royals. That just speaks to how poorly their team has performed this season. It isn't all the hitters' fault though. The Royals and White Sox have identical team ERAs at 5.26. The only thing that the White Sox have a significant edge in is the strikeout battle. They have about 40 more strikeouts than the Royals.

Zack Greinke #23 of the Kansas City Royals takes on the Chicago White Sox today. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Kansas City only has 14 wins on the season, but roughly 25% of those wins have come from games against the White Sox as they are already up 3-1 on the season series. Today they send Zack Greinke to the bump to try and beat Chicago. If you've followed me before, you know that Greinke is a guy you fade on the road. He has allowed 16 earned runs on the road in 18.2 innings, compared with 10 earned runs in 28 innings at home. Greinke did face the White Sox once this season and he allowed three earned over 5.2 innings. To battle Greinke, the Sox turn to Michael Kopech. Kopech has struggled to start this year and most of it is due to him allowing too many free passes. He has allowed three or more walks in six of his eight starts this year. The right-hander doesn't have many split differences at this point and hasn't faced the Royals this season, but has thrown slightly better in May. He also has been pretty solid against the Royals in the past.

I'm taking the White Sox to win this game at -130. You can't just blindly fade Greinke on the road, but the White Sox have shown a bit of life over the past few games and you need to beat teams like the Royals if you want any hopes of taking a division that really doesn't have a dominant team. I'll back them here and even sprinkle the run line at +145

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