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Orioles vs. Padres, 9:40 ET
I’m not sure, but this might be the third or fourth time that I’ve put out a play in the last two weeks that lost and in that same article, I mentioned that something else in the game could win. That could be the most frustrating part of gambling is getting different reads and playing the wrong one. Maybe it means I should avoid those games altogether. I’ll look for more definitive reads moving forward and have one tonight in the game between the Orioles and Padres.
Baltimore seemingly recognizes what they have in front of them and decided at the deadline to make a bit of a splash by adding another arm to the rotation. They currently own the second-best record in the league and are in arguably the hardest division in all of baseball. You can pick between them, the Braves, and even the Rangers and Dodgers as the best team in the league, but just being in the conversation is a big deal. They’ve got a solid balance and are a young team so could get better over the next couple of years. The player that the Orioles added to this season was Jack Flaherty who came over from the Cardinals. Flaherty has dealt with injuries over the past few seasons, but there is no denying that he is a very talented pitcher. He has been solid basically since the start of July as he has allowed just 14 earned runs over 40.2 innings. He’s made two starts for the Orioles now and has allowed four earned runs over the two starts that span 11 innings. Every Padres hitter has had a hit against him, but they aren’t overly successful either.
If we want to talk about the best teams in baseball, the Padres cannot be included even if they have all of the talent and pieces that they should be one of the best in baseball. I’m not sure if it is the manager, or if players are dealing with undisclosed injuries, or what the issue is. They need to get better and they only have about 40 games to try and make one last push for the playoffs. They are currently 6.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot which is a lot to overcome, but it is doable. The Padres strength has been the pitching staff. Michael Wacha is starting for them tonight after coming back from the injured list. This will be his first appearance since July 1st. Starting in May he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, he went 63.1 innings and allowed eight earned runs. That’s an amazing streak. For reference, he went 25.1 innings in April and allowed 19 earned runs. Whatever he changed or fixed after April has worked.
I think this is a game that makes sense to play the under. If Wacha comes back and performers as he had in the past, this should be a nice game for the Padres pitching staff. Even if he is limited, the Padres have a good enough bullpen to keep the score low. In addition, Flaherty is strong enough to keep the score low and then the Orioles have probably the best bullpen in baseball. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres are winning through five innings, but I won’t play it.
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