Back the Under in Game 4 for Padres vs. Dodgers

Dodgers vs. Padres, 9:37 ET, Game 4

The number 111 doesn’t mean anything right now. There is only one number in that string, and that’s the one number that matters today: one. The Dodgers are down to their one remaining game to try and save their season. The Padres have them on the ropes and can finish it out with a knockout punch.

The season is handed to Tyler Anderson. In reality, that isn’t a bad guy to turn to with the season on the brink. He has a 2.57 ERA for the year and was fine in just about every situation. He had a really good September, going 26 innings and allowing just five earned runs over the month. He doesn’t pitch deep into games typically, but most of the Dodgers starters don’t either. He’s obviously familiar with the Padres, having played in the same division with them, but he’s also had a lot of success against them this year. Over the season, he has four starts that covered 24 innings and he allowed just five earned runs to them. Two of them did come at PETCO Park, and of those five earned, four of the runs came here in 10.2 innings. The Dodgers lost both of those games.

Joe Musgrove is cheating. Okay, maybe he isn’t, I really don’t care. I feel like most of the players are searching for some sort of edge at this point. Whatever the case may be, he looked phenomenal against the Mets going seven innings and allowing just one hit and one walk. He only needed 86 pitches to do it, too. I made a nice chunk of change on Musgrove this season because I saw how well he was pitching early in the year. He stumbled a bit, but ended the season well, and obviously carried that into the postseason. He’s had three starts against the Dodgers and he has given up seven earned runs over 17.1 innings. The Padres lost all three games that he pitched, with two of them being home starts.

If you held a gun to my head right now and told me to pick the winner of the game, I’d say the Padres. But, please don’t do that – for many reasons. I think the best bet here is to take under 7.5 runs at -115. Both of these guys have been reliable for their teams. The Dodgers don’t want the stink of another great regular season only to fizzle out, and the Padres don’t want to have to go back to LA. They both might be a little tense and tight to start this out. The under is the play. I’d lean towards Padres through five and even the game, but I will not put money on it.

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Written by David Troy

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