Back The Pack On MNF

Packers vs. Raiders, 8:15 ET

We have had a really nice football week and are looking to go undefeated with the final play of this Week 5. I was able to get the 49ers with a lot more ease than I even expected. The game between the Jets and Broncos had me a bit nervous, but a big second half cashed our over bet. Now, on Monday Night Football, we get two teams looking to establish their footing in a battle between the Packers and Raiders.

The Packers have to be somewhat pleased with the team overall as they've gone 2-2 to start the season. They looked like they wouldn't miss a beat after moving on from Aaron Rodgers after they destroyed the Bears in the season opener on the road. Jordan Love looked great in that game, and he even looked great against the Falcons in Week 2 with another three touchdowns, but ultimately the team lost by one point. Week 3 saw them reverse that and win by one point over the Saints at home. Finally, last week they were blown out by the Lions. I will mention it looked like they had a bit of hope at one point but a slow start and bad first half cost the Packers any real chance in the game. Tonight, they have had a ton of time to prepare as their last game against the Lions was a Thursday game. In order for them to win this game, they need to get back to establishing the run in order to open up the passing game. The Raiders are allowing 134 rushing yards to opponents. In their wins, the Packers have rushed over 22 times. In their losses 21 or fewer. The passing game for the Packers has actually been okay, but they need protection. The Raiders have an aggressive line, but if the Packers offensive line keeps Love upright, he should be able to make the right play.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - SEPTEMBER 24: Davante Adams #17 of the Las Vegas Raiders celebrates a touchdown with Jimmy Garoppolo #10 during the first quarter in the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium on September 24, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Sam Morris/Getty Images)

It is a new year, but it is essentially the same exact thing as we've experienced before with the Raiders. Last year, the Raiders had Derek Carr and provided him with Davante Adams. They have a solid running back in Josh Jacobs, and even had Darren Waller. Waller is gone, as is Carr, replaced with Jimmy Garappolo, but the team hasn't really seen any change. They still make a lot of stupid mistakes and Garoppolo is playing essentially as about a backup quality quarterback. Garoppolo has already surrendered six interceptions on the season in just three games. The Raiders opened the season with a one-point win over the Broncos, and have lost their past three matches, all by at least five points. They have a shot to succeed against a soft Packers defense. The question right now is if Adams will play. Without him going against his former team, I think it could be very difficult for Garoppolo to get anything going. Jacobs has been essentially worthless this season with just 166 yards on the season over 62 rushes. In contrast, last season he had 192 yards over 42 rushes in only three games last year. I don't think either line really has an edge, but if there was an opportunity for Jacobs to ever break out, this would be the game.

I like the Packers in the game. There isn't much value on the moneyline at just +105, so I'll pass that and take the two points that the book is giving me. I'd be a bit surprised if they don't win this game. I'm considering putting a half unit down now and then another half if Adams is listed in the game and the line goes to three. I do think he scores a touchdown if he plays at -115.

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