Back the Mets Again Against Brewers

Mets vs. Brewers, 7:40 ET

The Brewers were absolutely dominated in yesterday’s game, one that we correctly played by backing the Mets over Corbin Burnes. Max Scherzer was tossing a perfect game before they had to remove him after he returned from the injured list. Both teams need to win these games. In fact, I didn’t realize this but say the Brewers and Padres tie for the final spot in the Wild Card, there is no one-game playoff. The Padres have the season series advantage so they get the spot. Kind of nuts, but that’s the new way of doing things.

Carlos Carrasco is taking the ball for the Mets. The Mets are known for their duo of Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, but Carrasco (and a couple of others) have been steady and stable forces helping the Mets get where they are now. Carrasco has a respectable 3.70 ERA but has a road ERA of 4.42 which is a full run higher than when he is pitching in New York. After an August where he stumbled and allowed eight runs in 14.2 innings, he has rebounded. This month, he has pitched 14.2 innings as well but has only allowed three earned runs. He has allowed essentially the same number of hits in both months, but the difference is he has no home runs allowed in September. He allowed four in August. The Brewers are hitting him fairly well – 17-for-66 – but haven’t scored many runs off of him in their chances. They’ve also struck out about a third of the time.

Aaron Ashby is pitching for the Brew Crew. He is coming off of the injured list to pitch against the Mets in what will amount to a bullpen game for the Brewers. Ashby is normally a starter, but it has been reported that he will be eased back into the rotation. The Brewers have not fared well in games that Ashby was involved in though. He hasn’t pitched since August 19th, so almost a month, but from June 4th through August 19th, the Brewers are 1-11 in games that Ashby has pitched. In those twelve games, he has allowed at least two runs in ten of those games. In six of those games, he has allowed four or more earned runs.

Ashby clearly isn’t throwing the ball very well, but maybe the injured list stint will change things for him. I kind of doubt it. While Carrasco doesn’t have the same pedigree as some of the elite pitchers he is in the rotation with, I still like him and the Mets better than the Brewers in this one. I’ll take the Mets in the game at -120. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the game goes over the 7.5 (now 8 at some books).

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

Leave a Reply