Back the Guardians in Tight Matchup

Rays vs. Guardians, 6:10 ET

Today we focus again on the Rays and Guardians in what could be a playoff matchup. If it is, expect a really boring series. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess. Both of the teams are built on their pitching. Still, it is a bit too early to jump to the conclusion that they will play each other or anything other than focusing on what is ahead of us.

Jeffrey Springs is taking the ball for the Rays tonight. I like the way that he has thrown for the year in both a relief and starting role. The Rays have actually won the last five games that Springs started. He doesn’t always go super deep into games. He throws five innings typically which means we probably need to focus on that type of play. In his last two games he has allowed five earned runs over 10.2 innings, which resulted in two decent outings from him. He’s been really good the past two months. Over 53 innings, he allowed 14 earned runs (18 unearned). He also had one start on the season against the Guardians – a 4-1 loss where he allowed three earned runs.

I mentioned that both teams are known for their pitching staffs. The Rays are known for creating the concept of an opener, and they have a couple of really good starters. The Guardians don’t have any Cy Young candidates, but they have a lot of guys that pitch very well. Cal Quantrill is one of those guys. On the season, he has a 3.49 ERA and no drastic split in any situation. He’s even been pretty consistent month to month. The Guardians are killing it when he starts, too. Since July, they are 14-2 when Quantrill starts a game. If he can avoid giving up the home run ball, he usually is very efficient and really good. Over his last 64.1 innings he has allowed 19 earned runs. He’s pitching really well heading into the playoffs.

I think both pitchers are putting their team in a position to win the game. Right now, the favorite is the Rays, but I think it probably should be the Guardians. I lean towards the over 6.5 but I’m going to take the Guardians to win the game today at +105. Most of my reason here is recent form. The Guardians are 8-2 over their last 10 while the Rays are just 4-6.

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Written by David Troy

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