In the words of Michael Scott, I’m not superstitious, but I am a little stitious. I was in a bad stretch for a few days and it was partially because I was giving a lot of plays or at least leans in the articles I was writing. So I went back to just one play a day and we took off going 12-5-1 in the plays when I just went back to the single best bet for the game. Then yesterday, I loved so much of what I saw in the Red Sox/Pirates game. I gave out one play and two sprinkles. I lost all three of them. Back to one play per game for me.
I don’t like picking on guys, I really don’t, but I wouldn’t be pitching Dylan Bundy if I was the Twins in a spot to get a chance at the division. With that said, Bundy has been good in Minnesota. At home, he has a 2.83 ERA and has allowed just 11 earned runs in 35 innings. He’s basically managing the game through five innings in each start he has at home. He has one start against Texas this season, he went five innings and allowed four earned runs. This is in line with the home/road splits as that start was on the road and he has a 4+ ERA in those starts.
Martin Perez has been surprisingly good for the Rangers this year, holding the 12th best ERA in the majors at just 2.79. He’s been pretty good overall in away starts, and has done well at night with sub-3 ERAs. August has been by far his worst month so far, but most of that came from the start against the Astros where he allowed seven earned runs. Outside of that, he’s allowed one or fewer earned runs in his three of his last four road starts. He also struggled against the Twins in his only start against them this year. He allowed six earned in six innings.
The Twins are 8-12 in starts by Bundy. The Rangers are 16-7 in games started by Perez. This game should be closer to a -110 line. Play the Rangers at plus money to win the game, +120.
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