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Brewers vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

The Brewers took the first game of the series yesterday, a game that I incorrectly called as Jordan Montgomery reverted to his Yankees day. Tonight both staff’s aces take the mound in a game the Brewers need much more than the Cardinals. Again, it isn’t as though the Cardinals want to lose, but they have a seven-game lead. They should be fine or they don’t deserve to win the division.

The Brewers have Corbin Burnes taking the ball for them today. After last year’s Cy Young season he hasn’t been quite as dominant, but there is no reason for complaint from Milwaukee. He has faltered a bit down the stretch though as he has allowed 24 earned runs over his past 47.1 innings. His most recent start was great, though. He went eight dominant innings allowing just three hits and one earned run in a home start against the Giants. He has absolutely crushed the Cardinals this year. In three starts he has allowed just one earned run and eight hits over 21 innings. Unsurprisingly, the Brewers have won all three games. In Burnes starts, the Cardinals have scored just two runs in the three games.

As I’ve documented this year, Adam Wainwright is a big-game pitcher. I’m not quite sure that this qualifies as a big game, but he does enjoy a challenge. Facing last year’s Cy Young winner, at home, in the middle of a division race should be all the motivation he needs. After a really good August, he has not been good in the two September starts he has. He has gone 10 innings and allowed eight earned runs. Both starts were five innings each and allowed four earned runs to cross the plate in both. He has a nice 2.65 home ERA. Milwaukee has done pretty well against him in four starts this season getting 12 earned runs off of him in 23 innings. However, his best start against them was his most recent – a nine-inning start where he allowed just one earned run. The Cardinals lost 3-2 in extra innings in that game. The Cardinals are 1-3 in Wainwright’s starts against the Brewers.

I think the edge has to go to the Brewers. Burnes has been so good on the year against the Cardinals. They aren’t playing their best baseball right now, but the Cardinals are cooling down a bit as well. I am taking the Brewers to win the game at -125. Would I be shocked if the Cardinals win? No, Wainwright is capable of spinning gems still and the under 7 is a good look as well. But, Burnes, at that price, is too good to pass up.

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Written by David Troy

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