Videos by OutKick
Braves vs. Guardians, 7:10 ET
I’m sure there is data out there that has been evaluated, but I personally think the All-Star break should be over the 4th of July. Maybe ticket sales are really strong during the 4th of July weekend. I’m not sure, but it would make sense in my opinion. While most of us, including Joey Chestnut, will be scarfing down hot dogs and watching fireworks, I’ll be evaluating baseball games. Today’s evaluation comes in a game between the Braves and Guardians.
It is just into July, and the Braves are the World Series favorite. With their strong record, a dominating pitching staff, and offense that is killing it game in and game out, it is no surprise that they are the favorites. It has been a great season for them so far and they have their sights set on more dominance in the second half of the season. They have been surprisingly good on the road this season with a 26-12 record. It was even more surprising that they struggled at home. One guy in their rotation that reflects the home/road splits is Bryce Elder. Overall, Elder has been phenomenal for the Braves. On the road though, Elder has allowed just six earned runs over 37.2 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his road starts either. He does only have six road starts to his name, but I think his patterns are strong enough to take them. It also helps that he has one of the best lineups in all of baseball to support him every start.
If you’ve seen my comments in any other article about the Guardians, you know that I think very little of them. Their pitching staff hasn’t been as dominant as they were last year when they made a run to the playoffs. Their hitting has never been the calling card of this team, but tip your cap to them, they still find ways to win games. The division is up for grabs and a .500 team might just win it this season with how terrible they have been. They have called up some reinforcement for their team with Gavin Williams taking the ball. This will be his third start of his career and he is off to a decent start. He has allowed four earned runs in 12.2 innings. All four runs came at home. The problem I have with Williams is that he has faced just the Royals and the Athletics. Neither of those teams, even combined with the best players from both teams, would be on the same level as the Braves. I don’t have much faith that he is some sort of stud pitcher.
The Braves are a good value here with Elder on the hill. He is at -135 for the game which is about as high as I’ll usually go for a bet. I think the Braves probably win this game by more than two runs as well, so feel free to play the run line if you’d like.
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