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Guardians vs. Nationals, 1:35 ET
Sometimes you look at a card and see a matchup so egregious you just start to shake your head. The pitchers are so drastically different in certain games that you can’t fathom how one team has any chance. It is not a good strategy for looking at a game, but it is something that happens. It is baseball, anything can happen, but I’m here to tell you, a lot would need to happen in this one for this game to go differently.
You know a few things about the Cleveland Guardians – they aren’t a very powerful team, they probably are going to play mostly station-to-station baseball, and their pitching staff is going to be better than your pitching staff. Today, they get a guy that will probably compete for the Cy Young award in Shane Bieber taking the mound. Bieber has been great for years, and honestly, his only downfall is that he shares a last name with that Canadian dufus that makes what some teenage girls consider music. Jokes aside, Bieber is going to absolutely dominate the Nationals today. This will be his fourth start of the season. He’s gone at least six innings in all three starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs. Now, that hasn’t translated to a ton of Cleveland success because they are just 1-2 in Bieber’s starts. However, he once again can be relied upon for a quality start and few runs, if any, allowed.
The other part of this mismatch that I referenced in the opening paragraph comes with the starter for the Nationals, Patrick Corbin. Corbin is arguably one of the worst free-agent signings in the history of baseball. Now in year five of a six-year contract, Corbin has gotten progressively worse for the Nationals each year. Last year was absolutely brutal. Wins aren’t everything on a pitcher’s stat sheet, but Corbin is being paid somewhere around three million dollars per win up to this point in his contract. Not a bad gig if you can get it. His first start only lasted three innings and he allowed two earned runs (four total). Then he allowed six earned runs over six innings against the Rays, before allowing four earned over five innings against the Angels. Pretty much anyone can hit him, even the Guardians. Though, in fairness, he has had success in the limited opportunities against them.
I’m not taking the moneyline on the Guardians, that’s a bit crazy to me. If you want to throw them in a parlay with someone, go for it. I won’t do it though. You also legitimately can’t play unders when Corbin is on the mound, even if it is negated with Bieber. I’m taking the Nationals under 3.5 runs. If you want, try the run line, but that’s still juiced higher than I’d like to require them to win the game.
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