Astros Cover Run Line in Game 1

Mariners vs. Astros, Game 1 3:37 ET

The Mariners and Astros are one of three divisional matchups that have teams from the same division squaring off. I’m not sure if that is a normal thing in this new Wild Card era, or what is happening, but these teams have played almost 20 times and now they have maybe five more games. The Astros dominated the Mariners in the regular season.

Logan Gilbert is going for the Mariners. I’ve already put one bet on this game, at least in one way. I took the Astros to win the first game and the full series. Gilbert has been solid on the year and finished in the top 30 of wins, ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. He started the year really strong with a 0.40 ERA over his first four starts and ended it very strong too. In September he went six starts and allowed just eight earned runs over the 36 innings he pitched. He shouldn’t be intimidated by the Astros either. Over the year he allowed just seven earned runs over four starts. The Mariners were 2-2 over the four starts that Gilbert had and only one of them went over six runs.

Justin Verlander, your likely 2022 Cy Young winner, is pitching for the Astros tonight. Any time he takes the mound, you have to like your chances. This season was potentially his best. He was second in the majors in wins, first in ERA, and first in WHIP. Even after missing a few starts, he finished 20th in strikeouts. His home ERA was actually lower than he overall ERA too at an eye-popping 1.64. In his last four starts, he allowed just three earned runs over 23 innings. This will be his seventh start against the Mariners this year. In his first six, he went 42.1 innings and allowed 11 earned runs. Of those 11 earned runs, six of them came in one game. The Astros went 5-1 in his starts against the Mainers this year. He allowed four earned runs at home against the Mariners in three starts that covered 20.2 innings.

If any team is going to pounce on a starter, I think the Astros can get to Gilbert. You never know how someone will respond to the bright lights of the postseason. There aren’t a ton of great non-juiced options. I am going to play the Astros run line at +105.

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Written by David Troy

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