Arkansas, K.J. Jefferson Trample Texas A&M In ‘JerryWorld’

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Arkansas alum Jerry Jones hosts an SEC neutral-site showdown between the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0, 1-0 in SEC) and No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies (2-1, 1-0 in SEC) Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, a.k.a. JerryWorld. Kickoff for Arkansas-Texas A&M is set for 7 p.m. ET and the game airs on ESPN.

The Razorbacks needed 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to beat the FCS Missouri State Bears 38-27 last week. Arkansas failed to cover as 25.5-point home favorites vs. Missouri State. But, Arkansas is 2-1 against the spread (ATS).

Texas A&M shut down the No. 25 Miami Hurricanes 17-9 at home this past weekend, covering as 6.5-point favorites. It was a nice bounce-back victory for the Aggies who lost at home the week prior to the Sun Belt’s Appalachian State Mountaineers 17-14.

Arkansas snapped a nine-game losing streak to Texas A&M with a 20-10 victory in last year’s meeting. The Razorbacks are only 1-2 straight up (SU) but 3-0 ATS vs. the Aggies since Arkansas hired Sam Pittman as the head coach in 2020.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson (Wesley Hitt/Getty Images).

The Razorbacks have been a feisty and profitable underdog since Pittman took over. Arkansas is 10-4 ATS as a ‘dog with a +4.0 ATS margin during Pittman’s stint and 6-2 ATS as road ‘dogs vs. SEC teams.

Also, Texas A&M’s offense has been ass since hiring coach Jimbo Fisher in 2018. The Aggies rank 107th in non-garbage time offensive success rate and 98th in 3rd-down conversion rate.

My colleague Grayson Weir pointed out that Texas A&M somehow has fewer red zone trips this season than the worst offense in the nation, the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Arkansas junior QB K.J. Jefferson has career-bests in completion rate, yards per attempt and passer efficiency rating through three games. Jefferson’s improvement is needed because the Razorbacks lost WR Treylon Burks to the NFL this offseason.

In last year’s meeting, Jefferson gained 262 total yards and threw two TDs while Texas A&M gained 272 yards as a team and scored one TD.

Arkansas has an elite offensive line this season and Texas A&M’s front seven ranks 126th in Havoc rate. The Razorbacks will keep Jefferson clean and open running lanes for the Arkansas backfield.

Finally, Texas A&M’s ATS win vs. Miami last week is misleading. Sure, the Hurricanes are ranked. But, Miami was missing its best wide receiver and the Aggies’ offense was awful again.

The Aggies were outgained 127 total yards and had 11 fewer first downs. Texas A&M’s cover last week got us a better price for Arkansas this week.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS +2 (-110).

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, Sept. 23 at 3:00 a.m. ET.

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.

Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

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