Vegas Bracketology 5.0.14

Published|Updated

March is when Cinderellas are born. We all know the stories about the Butler’s, George Mason’s, and VCU’s of the world getting hot at just the right time in their quest to string together 6 straight wins and cut down the nets.  In Vegas, we don’t get caught up in all that nostalgia because it doesn't help cash tickets.  More often than not we burst bubbles, relishing the opportunity to provide the truth behind talent evaluations.  This is our field, the best 68 teams in the land seeded by the power potential they possess rather than grading them on a non-conference resume building win back in November when college football fans still thought Alabama would win another national title.  Time changes all...

Like any other poll, Vegas rankings move throughout the season but they don’t experience wild fluctuations like the more traditional polls.  As we’ve said before with our weekly updates, one game doesn’t make a season and no team is ever as good or as bad as they looked in their last outing.  Here’s how the Power 16 has changed from 3 weeks ago compared to what we’re seeing now headed into championship week.

***If Joel Embiid remains out like expected, Kansas' would not actually be ranked in the top 16 in our poll


I know the detractors will be happy to see me eating crow for our initial ranking of Iowa as a potential 1 seed. It's hard to argue their merits given the Hawkeyes recent run of poor play to close the regular season.  Tennessee, despite some bewilderment from even Vols fans, continues to improve their profile climbing as high as 19 this week with a strong run of good play. The Vols are actually the biggest road block between the Gators and their run to perfection in the conference tournament.  Other teams to watch that find their stock on the rise at the right time: Wichita St, Michigan St, VCU, Oklahoma St, and Gonzaga.   The sides that are sliding at an inopportune time? Iowa, UCLA, and St Louis.

For ease of comparison, you'll see the current seeding from Joe Lunardi in parenthesis for all the teams we have seeded on our top 5 lines.  Remember the difference between public perception and the Vegas rankings may make picking your first round "upsets" that much easier when the bracket craze reaches a head come Sunday evening. Without further adieu...


***This bracket is seeded purely by who would be favored over who on a neutral court based on current power ratings

#1

Florida (1), Louisville (4), Arizona (1), Virginia (3)

#2

Duke (2), Creighton (3), Kansas (2), Syracuse (3)

#3

Villanova (1), Wichita St (1), Wisconsin (2) Michigan (2)

#4

Ohio St (6), Michigan St (5), VCU (6), Cincinnati (4)

#5

Iowa (8), Pittsburgh (10), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (7)

#6

Gonzaga (9), North Carolina (4), Oklahoma St, San Diego St (4)

#7

UCLA (6), Iowa St (3), Uconn (5), SMU (9)

#8

Memphis (7), New Mexico (7), Oklahoma (5), Oregon (8)

#9

St Louis (5), Harvard (11), Utah, Arizona St (8)

#10

Baylor (9), Florida St (Next 4 out), St John’s (First 4 out), Stanford (10)

#11

Maryland (NR), Texas (6), George Washington (9), Kansas St (8)

#12

Minnesota (First 4 out), BYU (12), UMASS (7), Marquette (NR)

#13

Louisiana Tech (12), North Dakota St (12), Georgia St (13), Manhattan (13)

#14

New Mexico St (NR), UC Santa Barbara (NR), Stephen F Austin (14), Buffalo (NR)

#15

Mercer (14), Delaware (13), North Carolina Central (14), Wright St

#16

Eastern Kentucky (15), American (16), Stony Brook (16), Weber St (16), Robert Morris (16), Wofford (16), Coastal Carolina (16), Jackson St (NR)

Last Four Out

Arkansas, Dayton, Providence, Clemson

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Clay Travis is the founder of the fastest growing national multimedia platform, OutKick, that produces and distributes engaging content across sports and pop culture to millions of fans across the country. OutKick was created by Travis in 2011 and sold to the Fox Corporation in 2021. One of the most electrifying and outspoken personalities in the industry, Travis hosts OutKick The Show where he provides his unfiltered opinion on the most compelling headlines throughout sports, culture, and politics. He also makes regular appearances on FOX News Media as a contributor providing analysis on a variety of subjects ranging from sports news to the cultural landscape. Throughout the college football season, Travis is on Big Noon Kickoff for Fox Sports breaking down the game and the latest storylines. Additionally, Travis serves as a co-host of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, a three-hour conservative radio talk program syndicated across Premiere Networks radio stations nationwide. Previously, he launched OutKick The Coverage on Fox Sports Radio that included interviews and listener interactions and was on Fox Sports Bet for four years. Additionally, Travis started an iHeartRadio Original Podcast called Wins & Losses that featured in-depth conversations with the biggest names in sports. Travis is a graduate of George Washington University as well as Vanderbilt Law School. Based in Nashville, he is the author of Dixieland Delight, On Rocky Top, and Republicans Buy Sneakers Too.