Trump Would Win Election If Polls Are Off By As Much As They Were in 2016 and 2020
According to a new New York Times-Siena College poll, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by about four points in three key battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
She is the betting favorite to win the election.
However, CNN data guru Harry Enten reminded viewers on Tuesday that polling has notoriously underestimated support for Trump. Enten explains if the polls are off as much as they were in 2016 and 2020, Trump will win the election in November.
The same poll underrepresented Trump voters in MI, PA, and WI by nine points in 2016 and five points in 2020.
Per Enten:
"We put out those poll numbers yesterday, you know, New York Times-Siena College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos polling, all of which showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum and enthusiasm potentially on her side. But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before.
On August 13, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and this is in 2016 and 2020 — Trump was [under]estimated both times around and by significant margins. Take a look here, in 2016 the average poll in those states they mentioned, those Great Lakes battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one off, look at this: He was underestimated by five points on average.
"And of course Kamala Harris’s advantage in those New York Times-Siena College polls were four points in each of these key battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The bottom line is this: If you have any idea- if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it," he continued. "Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years."
BUTLER, Pa. - Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is rushed offstage during a rally on July 13, 2024. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
As Enten notes, there was a notable correction in calculating support for Trump between 2016 and 2020 of about four points. Pollsters claim they are confident they are more accurate this time around when projecting the number of Trump voters.
Third time's the charm, right?
Nonetheless, Enten's point remains: we should acknowledge polls but not take them as gospel.
Trump has work to do. He has several winning messages to spread – from the border to the economy to ending endless wars. However, he has foolishly spent the past few weeks focused on Kamala’s skin color, Joe Rogan, crowd sizes, fake reports about Harris's crowd sizes, etc.
Not wise.
Trump had a better night on Monday, during a discussion with Elon Musk on X. He was less doom-and-gloom. He promoted the American Dream, as he did so effectively in 2016.
A listener asked me this week on Fox News' "Will Cain Show" to explain where the election sits in football terms. The third quarter is winding down, Harris leads by less than a field goal, but Trump can retake the lead with just a few strong plays.
You can watch that episode below: