Trump Is Slowly Regaining Frontrunner Status, Nate Silver's Model And Betting Market Show

Nate Silver, the most cited election statistician in American media today, gave Kamala Harris a 53.5% chance of winning the election on August 23. The betting market agreed, naming Harris the favorite.

With the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris less than a week away, Trump has regained his momentum. Silver's latest model gives Trump a 61.5% chance of winning, dropping Harris' likelihood to 38.3%. The Polymarket betting odds, again, concur with Silver.

Here's a breakdown of the latest movement:

Pennsylvania is where the biggest shift lies. 

Silver and the betting market gave Harris a slight edge in the all-important battleground state in August. Trump now leads rather comfortably in Silver's model at 63-38%. Trump tops Harris 56-44% in Pennsylvania at Polymarket.

That said, Silver and the odds disagree on Michigan. Silver gives Trump a 52% chance of winning the state, while the market favors Harris at 53%.

Now, Trump would remain in good shape if he were to lose Michigan but win Pennsylvania. The argument that the "winner of Pennsylvania will win the election" remains the expectation here.

Say the betting odds are correct, here's a reasonable projection of the map:

How confident should Trump voters be? Not very. We are likely en route to a toss-up.

On Friday, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten – one of the few credible people left at the network – called the race "historically close." 

He noted that neither Trump nor Harris has sustained a five-point lead for at least three weeks. While his polling shows Harris leading, the margins are so thin that Trump would reclaim the White House if he outperforms the polls by just 1%.

"We are talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world. This is a truly exciting race right now where any slight movement can make all the difference in the world," said Enten.

Put in football terms, we are approaching the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl and the game is tied.

And it has been a bumpy ride. 

In early June, before the debate, Trump held a narrow lead over Biden in the polls. Trump then emerged as a substantial favorite after the debate. Internal polling from Democrats showed Trump leading Biden in every battleground state, which, if held, would've resulted in 333 electoral votes for Trump.

Then, the Democratic Party chieftains forced Biden to step aside and installed Kamala Harris as the nominee without the input of voters. 

Harris quickly jumped out to a lead over Trump in the polls and the betting market, as the media deceptively rebranded her as something remarkably different from the Real Kamala.

The honeymoon period has since waned. Harris' 40-day dodging of the media started to backfire some. Voters are starting to catch on that Harris is running a campaign where policy is hardly mentioned.

Thus, all eyes now shift to the debate.

The last presidential debate, in June, ended Joe Biden's political career. The debate next week could very well establish a true frontrunner heading into November. We expect that it will.

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