Trump Is Once Again The Betting Favorite To Beat Kamala; Look at The Odds Movement Since June
Donald Trump is again the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election.
Trump, who had trailed Harris for weeks, currently has a 52 percent chance of winning the election, per Polymarket betting data.
Polymarket released a video on Tuesday detailing how drastically the race has changed since June – with Trump rising and falling, and rising again.
To recap:
Trump held a slight lead over Biden ahead of the June 27 debate. Biden's odds of winning plummeted following the debate, dipping to as low as 18 percent before he bowed out of re-election. Harris quickly surpassed Trump as the betting favorite upon installment from the oligarchs. On Tuesday, Trump regained the lead.
While natural to link Harris' drop to the ongoing gaslighting-fest at the Democratic National Convention, we don't believe that played a role in the shift on Tuesday.
Trump's new-found momentum is tied to three factors:
1) Kamala Harris' unrealistic, socialist-inspired speech on economics last week.
2) Harris' honeymoon period is starting to wane.
3) Independent candidates = Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 's running mate, Nicole Shanahan, saying they are considering dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump.
Kamala Harris has several advantages. She has the media, Hollywood, most of Big Tech, polling biases, age, and (faux) positivity on her side.
But Trump has policy on his side.
The economy, inflation, and the Southern border remain the three most important issues to voters. Trump leads Harris in all three categories, as CBS News reported on Sunday:
What does all of that mean?
The race is back to where it was pre-debate. Trump is no longer heading for a landslide victory, as he was over Biden. At the same time, Harris is not the clear favorite that the odds suggested she was just 10 days ago.
Alas, a dreaded "toss-up" election seems most likely, with only a few thousand votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania deciding the fate of the next four years.