Signing Day Is a Week Away: How Many Top Players Are Left?

I keep up with college football recruiting, but mostly in a generalized way. That is, I'm not obsessing over individual recruit decisions, I'm watching the overall trend lines of recruiting class rankings.

Here are the present Rivals recruiting rankings.

If you are one of those fans who says, "Rankings don't matter!" you're wrong.

Every team that won a BCS title had at least three classes ranked in the Rivals top ten in the preceding four years. So, yeah, they matter.  

Right now the SEC has six of the top nine classes and nine of the top 15 classes in the country. 

Putting that into context, Ole Miss has the 15th best class in the country, but only the 9th best class in the SEC. 

Recently I've stopped paying much attention to actual player announcements and just checked the 247 Sports crystal ball. If you aren't familiar with the crystal ball, 247 Sports allows those in the recruiting business to sign up for accounts and make predictions about where recruits will sign. 

It's accuracy rate is pretty astounding. 

You can click on the individual predictors and even check their track record.

With signing day one week from today, how many players are still uncommited? And on top of that, how many of the uncommited players truly appear to be in actual recruiting battles?

Not many.

Let's dive into the 247 Sports database.  

There are six uncommited five stars based on 247 sports rankings:

10. Marlon Humphrey

95% to Alabama

(Edit, he just commited to Alabama while I was writing this).

11. Rashaan Evans

94% to Auburn 

20. Lorenzo Carter

68% to Georgia, 27% to Alabama

21. Matt Elam

64% to Kentucky, 35% to Alabama

24. Adoree' Jackson

81% to USC, 16% to Florida

30. Malachi Dupre

95% to LSU

The biggest "battle" among these six players is Matt Elam, who's announcing tomorrow. Kentucky appears to have a substantial edge here. 

But it looks like Alabama, Auburn, and LSU each have one five star in the bag.

And five of the six uncommitted five stars are definitely headed to the SEC.  

What about the top four stars?

Just about all of them are decided as well. 

34. Ermon Lane 

84% to FSU

35. Travonte Valentine

85% to LSU

38. Malik McDowell

68% Michigan State, 26% Michigan

40. Damian Prince

69% Maryland

41. Solomon Thomas

85% Stanford

45. John Smith

77% USC

50. Damian Mama 

100% USC

54. Budda Baker

66% Washington, 18% UCLA, 14% Oregon

72. Nifae Lealao

76% Stanford

80. Derrick Nnadi

54% Virginia Tech, 33% FSU

101. Michiah Quick

45% Oklahoma, 40% Notre Dame, 13% UCLA

122. Braden Smith 

 50% TCU, 33% Auburn, 13% Texas A&M

123. Roderick Johnson

100% FSU

151. Isaiah McKenzie

79% Notre Dame, 13% Florida

172. Kaleb McGary

88% Washington

185. Wesley Green

77% South Carolina, 22% Georgia

196. Isaiah Ford

84% Virginia Tech, 15% Louisville

203. Kenyon Frison

44% Nebraska, 33% Oklahoma, 22% Arizona State

222. Kenny Young

44% UCLA, 44% LSU

232. Steven Parker

95% Oklahoma

247. Jabril Frazier

60% Arizona, 40% USC


If you use 247's composite rankings instead of their individual rankings, here are the other four stars that remain uncommitted. Every single one of them is considered 80% or more likely to a certain school. 

195. Chris Lammons

95% South Carolina

231. Andrew Williams

87% Auburn, 12% Clemson

245. Raymon Minor

83% Virginia Tech, 13% Marshall

263. Poona Ford

80% Texas

266. Richard Yeargin III

87% Clemson

301. Daniel Cage

86% Michigan State

312. Frank Ragnow

89% Minnesota


When you look at all these rankings, how many true uncertainies are there? Seven or eight, maybe? Sure, there will be a suprise or two on signing day, but most of those surprises are overrated for television drama.  Remember, the televised hat ceremonies are designed to create a great deal of suspense, drive ratings, and allow the kids to have their "moments."

But lots of people know the decisions beforehand. Because just about every major decision is already made if you look at the crystal ball percentages on 247 sports.

Use this as a guideline, in the time I was writing this column, Marlon Humphrey commited, as predicted, to Alabama.   

Written by
Clay Travis is the founder of the fastest growing national multimedia platform, OutKick, that produces and distributes engaging content across sports and pop culture to millions of fans across the country. OutKick was created by Travis in 2011 and sold to the Fox Corporation in 2021. One of the most electrifying and outspoken personalities in the industry, Travis hosts OutKick The Show where he provides his unfiltered opinion on the most compelling headlines throughout sports, culture, and politics. He also makes regular appearances on FOX News Media as a contributor providing analysis on a variety of subjects ranging from sports news to the cultural landscape. Throughout the college football season, Travis is on Big Noon Kickoff for Fox Sports breaking down the game and the latest storylines. Additionally, Travis serves as a co-host of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, a three-hour conservative radio talk program syndicated across Premiere Networks radio stations nationwide. Previously, he launched OutKick The Coverage on Fox Sports Radio that included interviews and listener interactions and was on Fox Sports Bet for four years. Additionally, Travis started an iHeartRadio Original Podcast called Wins & Losses that featured in-depth conversations with the biggest names in sports. Travis is a graduate of George Washington University as well as Vanderbilt Law School. Based in Nashville, he is the author of Dixieland Delight, On Rocky Top, and Republicans Buy Sneakers Too.