Odds Trump and Kamala Saying The Following Words During Debate

Donald Trump enters Tuesday's presidential debate against Kamala Harris with a 56% chance of winning the election, per Polymarket betting odds. This is his largest lead since Joe Biden bowed out of the race in July.

Polymarket also provided the percentage chances the candidates mention some of their most familiar go-to words/phrases on stage. 

Let us start with Trump:

– Comrade Kamala, 45% chance 

– Abortion, 81% 

– Fake News, 66% 

– Drill Baby Drill, 31% 

– Border Czar, 77% 

– Epstein, 5% 

– Elon Musk, 2% 

– Tampon, 32% 

– Fraud, 46% 

– Crypto, 13% 

– Israel, 90% 

– Marxist, 65% 

– McDonald's, 21% 

– Springfield, 26% 

– China (3+), 89% 

– MAGA (3+ times), 29% 

– Alien (5+), 19% 

– Border (15+), 59%

The chance of Trump uttering "Comrade Kamala" ought to be higher than 45%. That is his nickname for her. And Trump rarely avoids using his clever nickname on stage. 

Ask Little Marco (Rubio) and Lying Ted (Cruz).

Likewise, the chances he says "fake news" should be higher, much higher, than 66% – especially considering ABC, one of the faker of mainstream news outlets, is hosting the debate.

We aren't so sure Trump will say  "tampon" tonight, but he should. Harris' running mate, Tim Walz, put tampons in boys' bathrooms. And speaking of nicknames, Tampon Tim still stirs a chuckle.

We'll also take the under on Trump saying "border" 15 times. Around 12–13 times should suffice.

While "Elon Musk" is on the board, "Mark Zuckerberg" is not. Trump would be wise to mention Zuckerberg's admitting in a letter to Congress this month that the Biden-Harris administration White House pressured Meta (the parent company of Facebook and Instagram) to take down COVID-related content that reflected negatively on the White House.

Put simply, free speech is on the ballot in November.

Here is the slate for Harris:

– Abortion, 89% chance 

– I'm Speaking, 23% 

– Convicted Felon, 56% 

– Liar, 36% 

– Project 2025, 84% 

– Inflation, 86% 

– Palestine, 60% 

– DEI, 5% 

– Democracy, 81% 

– Weird, 21% 

– JD Vance, 32% 

– Crypto, 9% 

– AI, 32% 

– Wall, 43% 

– Not Going Back, 65% 

– Unrealized, 23% 

– McDonald's • 13% 

– Ceasefire, 77% 

– Border (5+ times), 68%

The border is a losing message for Kamala Harris and most of the Democratic Party. While she'll try to defend her record when asked, her using the word "border" five times seems like a stretch.

By contrast, abortion is – by the numbers – a winning message for the party. It might be the most effective message the party has. Thereby, 89% is too low. Kamala Harris is 100% using the word "abortion" on stage Tuesday night

"Not going back" and "convicted felon" should also be higher than 65% and 56%, respectively. 

"Cat lady" is not listed. Surely, Harris planned to reference JD Vance's "childless cat lady" comments before this week. Then came the accusations that Haitian migrants eat cats. 

Translation: Don't expect Harris to bring up "cats."

Also, how is "January 6" not listed for Harris? It's coming.

Oh, and take the over on "weird" at 21%. And Project 2025 at 84%. Harris is quite predictable. 

Tune into OutKick and @OutKick on X during and after the debate for instant analysis.