AFC Win Total Projections From SportsBook Review

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Now here come some AFC projections.

By: Jason Lake

There was a game on last Sunday? Oh, that’s right: The Philadelphia Eagles beat the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl LII. That was some crazy stuff. But it’s all in the past now – time to look ahead to the 2018 NFL season. We’ve already seen the first odds for Super Bowl LIII hit the NFL futures market at Sportsbook Review. It won’t be until September when we see the first regular-season win totals, but that’s not going to stop us from making some early projections, starting with the AFC. To do this, we’re using a simple formula: Take the Super Bowl odds and win totals from last year, then give the same totals to the teams who have the same or similar title odds this year. It’s not going to be an exact science; we’re not going to add up the wins and losses to make sure they match or anything like that. All we want at this point is a rough estimate of how the betting market anticipates things will go down in 2018. Then we can get ahead of the market when it’s finally time to jump on the lines once they hit the board.

AFC East

New England Patriots: 12 wins 

Playing in the league’s weakest division helps keep the Patriots afloat year after year. Will Tom Brady have another MVP season in him at age 41? Will Rob Gronkowski retire early?

Miami Dolphins: 7 wins 

The front office is a mess, but if QB Ryan Tannehill can stay healthy, that brings their floor up in this awful division. Get some offensive linemen already – the kind who play nice at lunchtime.

Buffalo Bills: 7 wins 

There are better quarterbacks out there than Tyrod Taylor, but he wasn’t that bad. Certainly not as bad as Nathan Peterman.

New York Jets: 7 wins 

If they get Kirk Cousins to be their quarterback, the OVER is definitely in sight. If it’s Josh Allen from Wyoming with the No. 6 pick in the Draft, it might take a year or two.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11 wins 

Steady as she goes in the Steel City. QB Ben Roethlisberger is coming back, and he should be happier with Randy Fichtner taking over from Todd Haley as offensive coordinator.

Baltimore Ravens: 8 wins

The Ravens haven’t had much luck when it comes to good health. Otherwise, they’re in pretty much the same situation as last year.

Cincinnati Bengals: 7 wins 

What an awful year for the Bengals. Again, put some offensive linemen in front of Andy Dalton, and everything should be okay.

Cleveland Browns: 5 wins

Five wins would be five more than Cleveland managed in 2017. Let’s see how they mess up with either Cousins or USC product Sam Darnold at quarterback.

AFC South 

Houston Texans: 9 wins 

DeShaun Watson was a godsend for Houston until he tore his right ACL. Looks like he’ll be good to go in 2018.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 9 wins 

The best defense in the league, plus QB Blake Bortles, who played at an acceptably average level this year.

Indianapolis Colts: 8 wins 

This total might have to be revised after Josh McDaniels called backsies on their head coaching job and returned to the Patriots as their offensive coordinator.

Tennessee Titans: 7 wins 

QB Marcus Mariota took a step back this year in his development. They’ll need him to get straightened out if they’re going to make the playoffs again.

AFC West 

Oakland Raiders: 9 wins 

The betting market loves the Raiders because they’ll be moving to Las Vegas soon. It’s a lame-duck franchise until that happens.

Kansas City Chiefs: 9 wins

Sending QB Alex Smith to Washington was an interesting move. Is Patrick Mahomes ready? Can the offensive line stay healthy in front of him? Los Angeles Chargers: 8 wins M’eh.

Denver Broncos: 8 wins 

This should be interesting. If they don’t get Cousins, they could get Oklahoma Sooners QB and Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield with the No. 5 pick. That, plus the solid Orange Crush defense, could get the Broncos right back in the playoff picture.

That takes care of the AFC. We’ll be back later this week with projected win totals for the NFC; in the meantime, to learn more about how to bet on the NFL and other sports, check out our handy betting guide at Sportsbook Review, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.