All That and a Bag of Mail: $34k Bet On Auburn’s Title Edition

This is the first Friday I haven’t been traveling in 19 weeks.

I’d forgotten what it’s like to just sit down at my desk and write out the mailbag with no distractions or wifi issues.

This is glorious.  

Our beaver pelt trader of the week is this Kentucky fan, who believes that the University of Kentucky has become too focused on education and not focused enough on basketball. 

Just when you want to focus on Alabama fans, Kentucky fans sprout up to remind you why they’re the second dumbest fan base in college sports. 

Enjoy.

Patrick M. writes:

“Clay, I’ve been constantly struggling with what to do with my future Auburn bet. In August I was I overserved at a wedding and some of my buddies and I we’re talking Auburn football and the last time they bet on Auburn to win it all a juco qb came in that no one knew anything about and ended up getting rich of Cam, so given the similarities I naturally I put $500 to win $750 on the over of 7 wins, and $100 on Auburn to win the BCS at +34,000. Now I’ve won a lot of money off the Tigers this year as I’ve bet every game, and moneylines over A&M and the Updykes which were very generous. So with the moneyline at -250 for FSU, what do I need to lay off to maximize my profits. Or do I just let it ride….”

You 100% do not let it ride. (FYI, he sent me evidence of the bet, but asked that I not publish it here because it gives him away). 

I’m going to update you with Todd Fuhrman’s intelligent analysis later here, but my easy read is that you have to hedge. The question is, which type of hedging is the best bet for you? 

FSU being a prohibitive favorite here, hurts you a bit since it means you have to bet a ton of money to try and balance out your winnings. 

My read is that you need to bet $17k in the best possible way to assure yourself of winning at least $17k.

I’ll update the mailbag here when Todd gives his best advice.  

Anonymous dad:

“My wife and I both teach at a fairly well-known university in the South. I teach in the humanities on a non-tenure track position, while my wife is on the tenure track in the slightly more prestigious College of Business. As a result, she makes approximately 3x as much money as I do. This is not my problem. Actually, I think it’s great.

Instead, here’s my issue: With one child (a 2-year-old) and another on the way (due in a month), we’ve thus far been able to work our schedules so that we haven’t had to send our daughter to day care or anything like that. This isn’t easy, though. We’ve both decided that, starting next Fall, I would quit my job and stay home with the kids. I love teaching, especially at the college level. However, this seems to be the right thing to do since we can afford to not have me work, and I genuinely love being a father. Plus, the cost of daycare would essentially make my salary negligible, and I’d much rather watch my kids than ship them off to someone else’s care.

So, the question: How should I feel about this? I know that a lot of guys would kill to be in a position like this. Should I feel like I won the jackpot here, not having to work a traditional job? I mean, now I can teach my kids about the finer points of football and life (in that order). What do I tell people I do? As of right now, no one outside of my house knows that this is even a consideration. Why do I feel the need to justify my future as a stay-at-home dad?

Thanks for the therapy.”

First, congrats on being willing to make this decision and I don’t think you should have to justify your future to anyone. Tons of couples are already making this decision. I mean, if your wife makes more money — something that’s become more and more common every year with lots of couples — and you’re just working to pay the childcare expenses, what sense does this make? 

We did the same thing when we had a second child. Except in our case, my wife worked as a guidance counselor and I made more money sitting in my boxers writing dick jokes for Outkick than she did molding the minds of high school kids. (Seriously, America’s sometimes a terrifying place.)

So she quit and I kept “working.”

But I’ll tell you this, keeping two kids all day is work.

I know because I’m at home for much of the day so I’d see the chaos of a parent at home with two kids under the age of three. Once the second kid becomes mobile, look out. Especially if you combine that with your oldest kid not wanting to go down for a nap anymore. It’s a particular curse of parenting that all kids refuse to take naps at some point. Generally, right about the time that you would pay hundreds of dollars yourself to go to take a nap. Until then nap time will become the greatest part of your day.

Good luck.  

Sean F. writes:

“Clay,

Long time listener, first time caller. Since the rest of the OKTC fanbase consistently asks for the opinion of a gay Muslim on anything from getting out of a terribly-scheduled wedding to planning family time around the upcoming football schedule, I need some help.

My buddies and I–when not lamenting the state of Tennessee football–often end up debating where a late-20s, single guy in a respected profession (so, not law) has the best odds of outkicking his coverage like Andy Enfield. As an expert on power rankings and coeds, you were really the only option to settle this dispute.

Bearing in mind that Southern-ness (aka appreciation that Saturdays are sacred) is a priority and that none of us is exactly Kliff Klingsbury or JFF, where should we all be headed? We’re thinking that we could turn it into a fantasy-football style draft for cities or something, but the logistics need work.”

Here’s my power rankings for hotness of girls in American cities:

1. Manhattan

Not New York City, just Manhattan.

Of course you’d all have to live in a 800 square foot apartment that costs you $3k a month, but think fo the girls you could  — probably not — bring back to your apartment for the orgies.  

2. Los Angeles

Where else does the hottest girl from every town in America head after she steals the community theater show in a local production of “Oklahoma?”

LA is like an entire country of hot chicks. 

3. Miami

I once went to buy a Gatorade in a Miami Beach Publix and saw ten women that looked like they’d just left the Victoria’s Secret runway. 

This was at three in the afternoon on a Tuesday. 

The local grocery store test is a good arbiter of neighborhoods and cities if you’re a single guy. Screw the bar scene, just go to the nicest grocery store in the area you’re thinking of moving to and go shopping for 45 minutes in the middle of the day. 

4. Nashville

Building on the grocery store analogy, go to the Harris Teeter on 21st avenue in Nashville. 

i swear to God every man who goes to this grocery store would move to Nashville. 

Per capita, I believe Nashville has more hot women than any city in America other than Santa Barbara, California. 

5. Washington, D.C.

No one is from Washington, D.C., but if you live in the district or just outside it in northern Virginia, you’re surrounded by smart, hot chicks. 

They all flock to D.C.

It’s amazing, really. 

6. Santa Barbara, CA.

The only American city I’ve ever visited where they ask you for a head shot to be hired as a waiter or waitress.

Everyone in this entire city is gorgeous.

That’s why tiny condos cost a million dollars.  

7. San Diego

As a general American rule, the warmer the climate, the hotter the women will be in that city.

That is, if you’d never been to, say, Boston or Miami and you had to pick which city had the hotter women with no knowledge of either city, you’d pick Miami. Or Tampa or Orlando, or basically any city in America other than Boston. 

The rule is not ironclad — see Manhattan — but it’s close. 

If you’ve ever been to San Diego, you know how awesome it is.

If you haven’t been, go.  

8. Austin

Austin and Nashville have a great deal in common. 

One of those things is really hot women.

9. San Francisco

There are so many young college grads in San Francisco now that you’ll be blown away by the number of hot, single women.

Plus, with the way the tech boom is rolling, you might end up a hundred millionaire while trying to chase girls at bars.

That’s a hell of a trade.

Since if you wind up a hundred millionaire you can move anywhere in the country and sleep with hot women for the next forty years. I mean, sure, you’d be miserable because you’d never end up with a family at the same time as the rest of  your friends. But you’d also be sleeping with scads of hot women until you decided to “settle down” with a 23 year old Brazilian model when you were 62.

Sure, you’d never really know whether the kids were yours or her ripped Russian personal trainer named Yuri, but she would love you with all of her (amply bosomed) heart.

Until she poisoned you.

And you died at 64.  

10. Dallas

Where do all the trashiest, hottest women in Texas end up?

Dallas. (Or Houston, which is number 11 on our list). 

There you go.  

Andrew P. writes:

“So when is it appropriate to talk to movie star? My wife and I saw Katie Holmes on the subway in NYC and I wanted to flip out. Being in love with Joey Potter as I was I wanted to say something. Also would it have been appropriate for a 36 year old male to tell her we used to play a Dawson’s Creek drinking game?”

I think you can certainly greet her, but the conversation should be limited to two minutes or less. 

Keep a clock in your head.

Otherwise, it gets awkward. You don’t know her. She probably doesn’t want to talk with you at all. (Although props to her for taking the subway). But she’ll be friendly for that length of time to you because most people can manage that. Also, you should factor in the inconvience to her aspects as well. I.e, is she eating? Does she have a kid with her? All of these things would lead you towards the don’t say anything angle.  

In this case you would have also been helped by your wife being with you because that kills the creepy vibe that a single guy otherwise might give off.

By the way, go figure, but the only celebrity I saw all season in LA was Kerr Smith, aka Jack from Dawson’s Creek. I didn’t talk to him because I couldn’t remember exactly who he was while we were in the bar.

But proving that being on Dawson’s Creek was the surest ticket ever to groupies, Jack was out drinking with two tens.

He’s probably been having Dawson’s Creek threesomes for a decade now.

And he played a gay guy.

Can you imagine what Pacey and Dawson pulled off back in the day? 

Jack writes:

“Clay,

A buddy and I just booked hotels in Brazil for the world cup next summer. We are going to Natal first, where the US plays its first game and then on to Rio.

We have applied for tickets to the US game in Natal but with FIFA’s sketchiness, we aren’t really expecting to be successful in their lottery.

This is already a fiscally irresponsible trip for us, but with the next two world cups in Russia and Qatar, this is our best/last to chance to go to a fun country for the world cup before wives and kids potentially get in the way. Our main goal is to party but going to an actual game would be an awesome bonus.

What would you be willing to pay a scalper for a ticket to that game if it comes to it? (also taking into account who knows what scalping is like down there and how many fakes could be on the street).”

I’ve never bought a ticket to a sporting event in a foreign country, but the number of counterfeit tickets available here has to be extreme. 

As a jingoistic American, I’d suggest trying to buy your tickets from an American. Because, let’s be honest, it’s Brazil. There’s a decent chance that lots of American guys and girls lose friends in the country at some point. Either the police, the whore houses, or the drugs are going to knock out quite a few “fans” who’d been planning on going to the game as just an excuse to justify a trip. 

The US is playing Ghana that game. 

Given that the per capita income in Ghana is $3500, how many people from Ghana do you think are traveling to Brazil?

Not many. 

So I feel like your odds on tickets aren’t really that bad. 

And I’d say you should be willing to shell out at least $250 in American dollars for a ticket. 

Logan D. writes:

“I am going to New Orleans next weekend for a bachelor party and my fraternity brother who is getting married mentioned his fiance and her bachelorette party will be there on the same weekend! I was shocked and did not think this was at all normal after he told me. So, I wanted to know your thoughts on this and if it is acceptable for the future husband and wife and what all could possibly go wrong?”

I’ve heard this is a new trend. 

I would fight it with every fiber of my being if I was you. 

What could go wrong?

Everything.

New Orleans isn’t even a very big city. There’s a 100% chance that the bachelor and bachelorette parties end up passing each other multiple times on Bourbon Street. 

This is the engagement version of nuclear weapon testing. Sure, it might work, but what if someone screws it up and you actually set off a nuclear bomb just to see whether or not your nuclear bomb works? 

Vincent writes:

“Hey you big gay Muslim,

I graduated from Mizzou last May and was lucky enough to land a job in Columbia. While this seemed like a dream situation for a young post-grad, I’m often conflicted about my current stage in life. Many of my friends are getting hitched and settling down, but I’ve continued to paint the town like a 5th year senior. At times I feel like the only way to force myself to grow-up is to leave Como. However, I truly love my job and could see myself working for this company for a long time. How long is it acceptable to live in my college town before I become that weird old guy at the bar?”

You’re what, 23?

Oh, you’ve got at least five good years left in you.

There are tons of grad students older than you who will be trying to hook up with undergrads until they finish law, med school, or whatever post-grad pursuit they’re involved in. As long as you’ve got guy or girl friends to hang out with at the bar, you’re fine.

It’s much more awkward to show up at the bar by yourself than it is to be too old.  

Plus “the old guy at the bar” standard is flexible in that it varies by city — college towns make you look older sooner — and, most importantly, the age of the crowd around you in the bar. 

If you move to the coasts you can get away with going out to bars for a really long time. 

No one ever gets married young in LA or New York. Consequently, you can be single and 32-37 there and it’s not that big of a deal. 

If you’re single and mid 30’s in the South then everyone assumes you’ve already gotten married and then divorced.

Good luck.  

Rob P. writes:

“Hey Clay,

My girlfriend wants to watch a Christmas movies tomorrow night. She’s recommended Miracle on 34th Street, White Christmas, and How the Grinch Stole Christmas.

I can’t think of a worse way to spend a Saturday night.

I’m trying to put together a sales pitch for Die Hard. In my opinion, it’s the greatest Christmas movie of all time. Have any input, advice, or other suggestions? Bad Santa? Lethal Weapon? Gremlins?

If not, I’m going to need a bottle of whiskey.”

Yeah, that sounds awful. 

Tell her you’ll agree, but that she has to dress like a slutty angel/elf/Santa’s helper for the entire movie.

You can watch any movie if your wife or girlfriend dresses hot enough. 

Although, it can be awkward with certain movies — “Schlinder’s List,” “12 Years a Slave,” and the like. 

If she refuses to dress up, stream Die Hard on your iPad.  

Andy K. writes:

Hi Clay, I have three questions all of which are related to Winston situation:

I realize money will not heal the victim, but discussions of a civil suit are interesting to me since its a unique situation – its a high profile defendant but he doesn’t have any money.

1. If there’s a civil suit, can the accuser go after Tallahassee PD and the state’s attorney’s office, as well as Winston?
2. Can they go after Winston’s future earnings?
3. Does the likelihood of a very large & successful civil suit settlement increase because a jury may “make up” for the fact that the TPD bungled the whole thing?”

1. Yes, but there’s likely to be a small chance of recovery and/or limited actual dollars in going after the Tallahasssee police or, for instance, Florida State.

2. She has three full years to sue Winston. Given that it’s likely he’ll go pro next year, he will have money going forward. 

3. There’s a 100% chance that Jameis Winston would settle this case. There’s no way it ever goes to trial. As I noted last week, the standard here is preponderance of the evidence, that means a jury would just have to find it 51% likely that there was a sexual battery.

Given that he’s been unwilling to speak to authorities, I think Winston probably doesn’t want to give a deposition in a civil suit either.

Whenever this case is filed, and the alleged victim in this case has three years, it will eventually be settled.  

Mark writes:

“As we all know after playing a season with rape accusations hanging over his head, Jameis Winston is now breathing easy after it was found that not enough evidence exists to charge him. It just happens that he is also one of the leading candidates for this year’s Heisman. It’s been long said that the Heisman is about play on the field as well as character and integrity. My question is this: Although no charges were filed against Winston, is it ok for Heisman voters to not vote for Winston on the basis of character and integrity because of the rape accusation, regardless of no charges?”

I think so, yes.

A reasonable person can read all the findings in this case — as well as reviewing the allegations of the purported victim — and decide that irrespective of whether or not charges were filed, you just don’t feel comfortable with Winston’s “vindication” in this case.

I do think it’s difficult to analyze character, however, and I’d be incredibly nervous about thinking we really know any of these guys. 

So I’d vote for Winston based entirely on his on-field performance, but I can certainly understand why some people wouldn’t vote for Winston based on off-field reservations.