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Marlins vs. Phillies, 6:40 ET
I was way off about the Braves yesterday. I mean it wasn’t even close. The Padres murdered the Braves pitching and scored 10 runs in the game. It was my fault that I relied on and took on a pitcher that had only one Major League start and then was going on national television. I usually fade that situation and I got caught up in the Braves pitching love. My bad. Now I’m taking a pitcher that has a much better track record.
There are only so many ways to write that the Marlins are a bad baseball team, but I’m back trying to find another way to spin it. I simply can’t find another way, though. I’ll give them a bit of recognition for a solid enough 4-6 record through their first ten games. They have a couple of guys hitting the ball fairly well so far, but nothing you want to get super pumped about. It seems like a lot of their runs are coming off of the home run ball. Sandy Alcantara is taking the ball for them, so the need for runs gets reduced pretty significantly. This guy tossed the first complete game shutout of the young season in his last start. He was outstanding last year, but his road starts were much worse than his home starts. At Citizens Bank Park he allowed 11 runs, nine earned, over 21.1 innings. Phillies hitters are also batting almost .300 against him.
On the other side, the Phillies are trying to combat Alcantara with Matt Straham. This will be Straham’s second start of the season and the first time he has made more than one start in a season since 2019. In his first start for the Phillies this year, he went four innings and allowed just one hit, and threw 61 pitches. The Yankees only mustered one hit and one walk off of him as the Phillies one 4-1. Being a reliever normally, Marlins hitters haven’t seen much of him, but they are 2-for-7 against him. The Phillies have stumbled to start the year, maybe that is because they played long into the year last season, I’m not really sure. Either way, they are 3-2 over their past five, but just 3-6 to start the year.
Some of these lines seem a bit absurd. The Marlins team total for runs is 4.5? I mean, take the under and thank me tomorrow. They’ve scored five runs or more just twice this season. But, honestly, that isn’t my official play. I like the Marlins to win the game at -130. I think we are getting some good value on Alcantara in this one.
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