Marlins vs. Phillies, 6:45 ET
Here is my advice based on what happened yesterday: read the articles, and then bet the games closer to the opening pitch. For those that are unaware, I gave a play on the Orioles moneyline through five innings yesterday. It was contingent on their pitcher, Dean Kremer, starting the game. As I tweeted out, stay away if you didn’t play it, and if you did, take the Blue Jays and just accept a small loss. It happens, it isn’t ideal, but hopefully, you were part of the group that went 1-1-1 (essentially) or you cashed out. For me, I will take the 1-2 record and look to get it back today.
Sandy Alcantara is still the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. It is justified, the guy has been really strong this year, but it isn’t like he has been unhittable. He has allowed six earned runs in two of his last three starts. After leading the league in ERA for most of the year, he has dropped down to fifth. Obviously two six-run starts will hurt that particular stat, but since August began, he has as many quality starts (3) as he has non-quality starts. Where Alcantara struggles is on the road. This season his road ERA is 3.30, almost a full run higher than his overall ERA. Not all of the road starts have been bad, and most pitchers would be really happy with the results he gets on the road, but in comparison to how well he is pitching at home, it is a bit surprising. He’s been okay against the Phillies this year, allowing 10 earned runs in 29.2 innings. The Marlins have lost three of the four games against the Phillies when Alcantara starts. Two games landed on seven, the other two fell well under.
On the other side is Kyle Gibson who is very hard to have faith in. After having a really good August, he stumbled yet again and allowed seven earned runs in 1.2 innings. Gibson has faced off against Alcantara a couple of games this season and he was able to steal a 2-1 win in Miami and lost once as well. In four starts against the Marlins this season, Gibson has had a 2.92 ERA against the squad having allowed just eight earned runs in 24.2 innings. It does seem that Gibson is at his best when he is facing the NL East opponents. Another positive for Gibson is that he has a 3.71 home ERA, it isn’t great, but he is pitching much better there than on the road.
I think the best way to go in this game is to play the under 7 for the total. I’ll only mention this, I feel like this might be sweaty. Unfortunately, either of these pitchers is in a spot right now where they could hurl seven shutout innings or give up six runs in one inning. Alcantara is fighting for his Cy Young, Gibson needs to rebound off of a bad performance, so I think the under is the right choice at -105.
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