Videos by OutKick
There are now three divisions we’ve covered and all of the favorites have been -190 or higher to win. None of those are teams I would choose against in the plays – the Bucs, the Bills, and the Packers. Now we get to the divisions that either are plus money for each team or a little more reasonable odds.
This time we will talk about the AFC South. Frankly, I’m surprised about the odds for this division.
The only team, in my opinion, that did substantially better in the offseason was the Colts (-135). They went from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan. While Ryan is certainly up there in age, he still is better/smarter than what Wentz was delivering to the Colts last season. Jonathan Taylor is universally regarded as a top fantasy option and that’s because the running game is such a strength for the Colts. You don’t instantly think of a running game as a reason to support a team, but the two best teams in this division are strong because of their running backs. Defensively, I think the Colts are better, and more reliable than the Titans as well. So, they have a better quarterback than last year, a strong running game, and a good defense.
The Titans (+170) have been good the past few seasons, but really haven’t been able to put it together. Last year I mapped out a way for the Bengals to get to the AFC Championship game, and to the Super Bowl, and a lot of that was because they faced the Titans. I have never really trusted this team. Most of that is because if you watch them, they can’t put a full game of football together. They either have a great first half or a great second half, but never both. Tannehill is not the answer at quarterback, and it appears they started to recognize that by drafting Malik Willis. They also abandoned their best receiver, A.J. Brown, in a trade to the Eagles, and let Julio Jones go. Even with Robert Woods coming on the team, I expect opponents to dare the Titans to throw on them instead of allowing Derrick Henry to run rampant on them. Could they win the division? Sure, I just don’t believe it will happen.
The Jaguars (+800) are going to be better, but they won’t win double digits. They likely won’t even be a .500 team this year. They seem like they are trying to get the band back together with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. I think they might even have some pieces on defense that keep them in the game. If things start to click that’s all the positivity they need in Jacksonville – they won’t win the division.
The Texans (+3000) shed the stink of Deshaun Watson, but that doesn’t shed the stink of the rest of the team. It is just a different type of stink. Brandin Cooks will still be successful because he will get targets and has been a solid enough receiver no matter who is throwing the ball. But, that won’t win them the division.
Play the Colts and ride the Jonathan Taylor coattails.