AFC Championship Game – Best Bet

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Last week, we were treated to arguably the best football game ever played. At the very least the best final two minutes of a game ever. Now we get the matchup to send one of these teams to the Super Bowl and the other home packing. The Bengals are on a roll and the Chiefs are in their fourth consecutive AFC championship game and looking for their third straight Super Bowl appearance.

The Bengals and Chiefs played earlier in the season, in Cincinnati. That game was important for both teams in various ways. The Chiefs came out to score 28 points in the first half and the Bengals scored a touchdown in every quarter. The Chiefs only scored three points in the second half and ultimately were outlasted by the Bengals. We all know how both these teams got here – Bengals beating the Raiders and the Titans and the Chiefs outscoring the Bills and Steelers. In both games, they put up 42 points.

If you’ve been following along, we’ve cashed a +200 ticket on the Bengals just making it here and we have a +800 ticket for them to just make it to the Super Bowl. Hedging options would just be taking the Chiefs at -350 for one unit and just breaking even on your bet. You could do it for 1.5 or 2 units, and you’d get profit with either outcome. I’m leaning towards live betting the moneyline. If the Chiefs go down, we might get lucky and see a lower line we can hedge on.

I may be in the minority, but I think the Bengals have a legitimate shot here. Defensively, the Chiefs still haven’t really stopped anyone. And, perhaps, my biggest concern is that they won that game last week the way they did. That was an emotional roller coaster and reminds me a bit of the Saints Vikings game from 2018. Also a game that Stefon Diggs played in, for those of you that are interested in things like that. The following week the Vikings lost badly to the Eagles. The Vikings had to travel for that game, but nonetheless, there are some similarities there. On the other hand, you could say this is similar to the Pats beating the Chiefs in the AFC Championship in 2019 and then winning the Super Bowl. But, the difference there is there was more rest and time between.

The moment won’t be too big for Burrow, and it certainly won’t be too big for Mahomes. I like the Chiefs to win if Tyrann Mathieu plays, but if he doesn’t the Bengals are a really good look in this game. I think it will be closer than people think. There is no chance I’d play the under in this game, but I am also not confident that it will be the track meet the first game was or the same as the Bills game. The Bengals have been a bit methodical, and their defense has been impressive. I’m going to play the Bengals at +7 at -108. We’ve made a nice roll on them so far, I think they can keep it close.

Written by David Troy

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