Ace Starters in NY: Back the Under

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Well, last time I tried to fade Jacob deGrom it was a disaster. I don’t think that’s the route that I’ll take today. The Mets are trying to march towards securing the division title, and while they have a comfortable lead against the Phillies (and Braves) this series could go a long way to burying them.

deGrom took on the Braves last start and he was great. He went 5.2 innings and allowed just one hit and two earned runs. Oh, and he struck out 12 batters of the 17 outs. The Mets won that game with ease at 5-2. This was just deGrom’s second start of the season, and while I was wrong about the outcome, there was one part I was correct about – he threw only 76 pitches. I think he probably gets bumped up to 85 pitches or so today. This should get him a solid six innings.

Aaron Nola has put together a good season, but most of that is due to his road starts. I’ve been impressed with his 2.24 ERA on the road. He’s allowed 19 earned runs in 76.1 innings compared to what he’s done at home (32 earned in 68.1 innings). Still, even with the splits, Nola has been pretty consistent overall on the season, and August has started well for him. He’s been solid against the Mets in his three starts against them. In his one start at Citi Field he posted a quality start while striking out 9 Mets.

It is a low number, but I think under 6.5 is the best play in this game.

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Written by David Troy

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