A Take on the Total in Astros, Yankees Game 4

Astros vs. Yankees, Game 4, 7:07 ET

This series is over. Maybe it won’t happen today, but I don’t think this heads back to Houston at all either. The Yankees best chance to grab a game has to be tonight because tomorrow they are putting out Jameson Taillon and he will not put the Yankees in a spot to win the game. I’ve seen this series very clearly from the jump and am looking to close it out strong.

Lance McCullers Jr. is pitching for the Astros with a commanding 3-0 lead in the series. He only made eight starts on the season, but they were strong starts for the most part, and he’s been back since August so it isn’t much of a rust situation here. His first postseason start this year came against the Mariners in a game that saw the team have to fight through 18 innings in order to get a win. He allowed just two hits and two walks in that game and no earned runs. Over his career, the Yankees have had 11 hits against him in 53 at-bats and seven RBI. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both have hit homers off of him, but the rest of the team hasn’t done much damage.

Nestor Cortes is the Yankees best pitcher this year. On the season, he had a stellar 12-4 record and a 2.44 ERA. He is even kind of fun to watch with his strange deliveries. Will he be enough to save them though? He kept the Yankees season alive (and the fact that they got to face Aaron Civale in Game 5) last time he was pitching, he must do it again now. In the playoffs, he has made two starts and went just five innings in both of them. They didn’t really need him to go deep into the game against the Guardians and he was pulled at just 61 pitches. I assume that was probably to try and save him or keep him fresh for the next series. He’s been great at home as well with a 1.95 ERA in New York so I could see him having a very strong outing today. He did face Houston once at home this year and allowed three earned runs over five innings.

This is a pretty low total, but I wouldn’t expect many runs to come out of this game, either. We probably will see Cortes give up one or two runs, and McCullers might give up one or two himself. I don’t think either team will produce much in this one. I probably lean towards the Yankees winning this game, but I’m going to play the under on 6.5 at +100. The Astros likely close it out tomorrow.

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Written by David Troy

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