A Look Towards the Total in Dbacks vs. Brew Crew

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers, 4:10 ET

I’ve talked a lot about a few different pitchers on the year. Tony Gonsolin, Johnny Cueto, Merrill Kelly, and a few others. We get one last opportunity to make some money on a Kelly start with the final game of the season. It was a great year, and I have him to thank for some of it at the very least. Let’s see if we can squeeze out one more.

Merrill Kelly surprised the hell out of me this season, but I was very happy to pick up on how well he was pitching early in the year and we were able to take some nice unders and even plus money plays on him winning games. Kelly has not been quite as good on the road as he has been at home, but he is pitching solid enough that we can rely on him. He had one start against Milwaukee on the season and he went seven innings and only allowed four hits. One word of warning, though Kelly’s most recent start was not pretty. He faced the Giants and allowed eight earned runs over 4.2 innings. It wasn’t a great month overall as he allowed 11 home runs in September. That was more than he allowed in the rest of the season combined.

Corbin Burnes is throwing one more time for the Brewers. While it wasn’t the Cy Young season he had last year, this was nothing to sneeze at. Over the season, he has a 2.98 ERA and could probably end with it being a bit lower. Arizona did hit him well in his only start against them this season. He allowed five earned runs over 5.2 innings. Burnes was good in September, though. He threw four quality starts out of the six he went. The two that weren’t quality were not pretty as he allowed five earned in each. Still, at home he seems to be pitching a bit better and is coming off of a game against the Marlins that he allowed just four hits in eight innings.

This seems like one of those games that the batters just coast in and the pitchers have a field day of mowing them down. I’m taking the under 7 in this one. Could Kelly end the year on a sour note? Of course, it could be really bad. Luckily, I have Burnes to back me up, and I think, cover this without allowing runs.

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Written by David Troy

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