A Look Towards the Total in Cleveland

Royals vs. Guardians, 6:10 ET

The Guardians surprisingly won the AL Central. I don’t know what their odds were to start the season, but I believe they were the third-highest option available. Now they have locked in their playoff position and really have nothing left to play for aside from staying healthy going into the playoffs. I kind of wonder who will be in their rotation.

I have to assume that Triston McKenzie will get a start for them in the playoffs. McKenzie is one of the reasons that the Guardians are getting into the playoffs and have a decent shot to compete. He has put together a solid year and could finish in the top-20 for both ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. That’s a good year. At home, he has been strong, but only has 12 starts there. In 76.1 innings, he has allowed just 24 earned runs. Of his 25 homers that he has allowed on the season, only seven have come in Cleveland. One other thing about his home starts – he has 92 strikeouts at home, and he has 94 on the road in 34 more innings. This means he is clearly pitching better here. The biggest question is if we are looking at a real start or just a tuneup before the playoffs start.

Part of me wonders if this is the last time we will see Zack Greinke pitch. He’s put together quite the career, and even though he is 38, it appears he still has some gas left in the tank. His last start was one of the better one of his season. He really struggled in road starts for much of the season, but his last few have been okay, even if he hasn’t lasted very long in the starts. In his last four road starts, he has a total of 21 innings. He’s only allowed six earned runs in those innings. Against the Guardians on the year, he has a low, 1.08 ERA over three starts (all of them were in Kansas City).

This is a game that probably goes under the total. I think that it also is a situation where the Royals are live dogs. My official play in this one will be the under 6.5 at +100. It is possible you can find a 7 or a 7.5 somewhere as the day goes along, but this game means very little to either team, and both pitchers are throwing well right now. Feel free to sprinkle the Royals moneyline if you like. I likely will lay off of it.

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Written by David Troy

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