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49ers vs. Cardinals, 8:15 ET
Monday Night Football brings us a matchup between the 49ers and the Cardinals. This matchup has already moved a bit just overnight from an eight point spread to now the 49ers needing to cover 10 points in the game. The game is being played in Mexico City which does change the analysis a little bit in the game.
The 49ers are just at 5-4 on the season and in a division that almost no team looks like they want to win it. They are supported by their defense as they have been for a few seasons now. In three of their past five games, they’ve allowed 16 or fewer points to their opponents. Their offense hasn’t lit the world up though. After starting the year with Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo replaced him due to injury and has played pretty well in his eight games this year. Adding in Christian McCaffery has given the 49ers some additional depth on the team. There isn’t really any area in this game that the Cardinals have the edge in. It shouldn’t take much for the 49ers to win this game, but can they cover? I don’t know that I’d want to back that side. I wasn’t comfortable with the eight points, but 10 makes it even harder.
I’m not sure I can get to the window with the Cardinals either though. They are such a dysfunctional team. When you expect them to play well, they lay an egg. If you expect them to play poorly, they put together a dominant performance. It doesn’t look like they will have Kyler Murray leading their squad which makes the 49ers defense even more likely to be effective. Why? Well, the backup quarterback is Colt McCoy. He’s decent and played well against San Francisco last year in a spot start. I don’t expect the same result in this one though.
So how do we play this? I like the over in the game. It is fairly low at just 42.5 and I think this game should see at least 45 points. One issue I have a bit of concern about is the field itself. I don’t know what condition this field will be in. The 49ers may have prepared all week for Murray, too. So the best play, even better than the over for the game, is taking the Cardinals over 15.5 points at -120.
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