David Troy
Videos by OutKick
Phillies vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET
Well… yesterday sucked. I lost both plays. One of them I was way off on and it was just a bad play, I can own up to that. The other one was more bad luck, something I feel like I’ve run into quite a bit this season. I can’t tell you the number of first five plays I’ve had this year that have lost in the bottom of the fifth. It once again struck yesterday, but we don’t run and hide, we get up and try to get those units back. My first attempt of the day will be in the Phillies vs. Marlins matchup.
The Phillies started the year as one of the worst teams in baseball. Maybe that’s a bit of an overstatement, but it looked like they couldn’t figure it out. They were at the bottom of the division after getting to the World Series last year and adding Trea Turner in the offseason. We knew pitching would be a bit of a concern, but the hitting wasn’t coming through either. Things have since improved and they are now back in the conversation for winning a Wild Card spot. The division is kind of out of the question considering how good the Braves are playing. Today Zack Wheeler, one of the main reasons they made the World Series, is pitching. Wheeler has had a fairly inconsistent season, but the Phillies have provided him with enough run support lately that it hasn’t mattered. They’ve won the past five Wheeler starts. In his last two starts he has allowed at least four earned runs. He did face Miami once this season and went six innings with just one earned run allowed.
The Marlins are one of the more surprising teams this season. They have rebounded from a bad year last year and have already won over 50 games before the All-Star Break. This is pretty cool if you’re into those big turnaround stories, but I do question if they will be able to keep this up for an entire season. Sure, they have a guy that is batting .388 (.200 points higher than Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies, which is probably an unnecessary shot at Schwarber, but whatever) but keeping this up for a full year is going to be a challenge. Speaking of turnarounds, Sandy Alcantara was the Cy Young winner last year. This year, the guy stinks. He’s 3-7 with a 4.93 ERA, either he sold is soul for one year of success last year, or forgot how to pitch this year. He already has eight starts where he has allowed four or more earned runs. For context, he only had six all of last season. The Phillies have hit Alcantara pretty well over their careers as well.
We are going to grab the Phillies here to win this one at -130. I think there is a real possibility that they can win on the run line at +140 and that the game goes over the 7.5 runs. Neither pitcher is as dominant as they have been. My official play is the Phillies, but I may get involved in the other two with smaller values.
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