6-Point NFL Teaser: TNF, Ravens-Steelers In Week 14

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The “advantage teaser” play has been no bueno in the 2022 NFL regular season. Betting 6-point NFL teasers has been an integral part of my football betting strategy for years. But, I sniffed out these teasers losing early and have avoided taking them.

(“Teaser”: Add six points to at least two sides or totals. Both have to win for the bet to cash. The best way to bet these are “advantage teasers,” which you get when teasing teams through key numbers of 3 or 7).

My NFL Week 14 teaser look is in the Thursday Night Football game and a bitter division rivalry.

Teaser Leg #1: Raiders -0.5 at the Rams

The Los Angeles Rams (3-9) host the Las Vegas Raiders at SoFi Stadium in Week 14 on Thursday Night Football with the kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.

First of all, this is going to be a Raiders home game. They have a lot more fans in LA than the Rams despite the Rams being the reigning Super Bowl champions. Even if the Rams were playing well, SoFi Stadium in LA would be decked out in Silver and Black.

Also, we (football fans) need to accept the fact that Las Vegas’ first-year head coach Josh McDaniels might not be the worst. McDaniels definitely struggled early and his reputation wasn’t strong beforehand.

Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels looks on in the 3rd quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.
Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels. (Getty Images)

But the Raiders have won and covered three straight games and have an outside shot of making the postseason in the AFC. On the other hand, the Rams are a shell of themselves.

LA is missing Matt Stafford, reigning Offensive Player of the Year, WR Cooper Kupp, and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. Vegas struggles in pass protection and Donald’s absence will be felt Thursday.

Finally, the Raiders are actually pretty good at stopping the run and the Rams are on a backup QB. Vegas’s run defense is eighth in expected points added per play (EPA/play) rushing. LA is 26th in rushing EPA/play on offense.


Teaser Leg #2: Ravens +8.5 at the Steelers

The division-leading Baltimore Ravens (8-4) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) at Acrisure Stadium Sunday in the 1 p.m. ET window. This should be an old-fashioned AFC North slobber knocker and Ravens-Steelers is one of the best rivalries in the NFL.

Since 2012, when one of these teams is -3 or higher, the underdog in Ravens-Steelers is 13-2-2 against the spread and 15-2 vs. 6-point teasers. The average final score in Ravens-Steelers games over that span is 21.6-20.9 in Baltimore’s favor.

Moreover, my colleague and homie Dan Zaksheske thinks Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley isn’t much of a downgrade from an injured Lamar Jackson. Frankly, in this spot, I have to agree.

Baltimore’s ceiling is definitely lower without Lamar but the Ravens can patch it up for this week against a familiar foe. Huntley is a poor man’s Jackson and can operate in a similar offensive scheme.

Baltimore Ravens QB Tyler Huntley rushes with the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.
Baltimore Ravens QB Tyler Huntley. (Getty Images)

He started for Baltimore at home in the second Ravens-Steelers meeting last season in Jan. 2022. Huntley struggled to throw the ball (16-for-31 with 141 yards and a 0/2 TD/INT ratio). But Pittsburgh only won 16-13 in overtime because that’s how this series plays out.

Not only that but this is a profitable teaser spot for both teams. The Ravens are 11-1 vs. a 6-point teaser as a ‘dog since Lamar’s first season as the starter (2019). The Steelers are 20-9 vs. 6-PT teaser as a ‘dog over that span.

In the months of December and January, Pittsburgh is only 4-22 vs. 6-point teasers as home favorites since 2012. Essentially, the Steelers place close games at home in the winter. That’s true for their rivalry with the Ravens as well.

Lastly, let’s not forget Pittsburgh has a rookie QB, Kenny Pickett, under center. Baltimore’s secondary is very talented and the Ravens are awesome at stopping the run. The Ravens’ defense is fifth in both rushing EPA/play and rushing success rate allowed.

The 6-point teaser odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, December 8th at 1: p.m. ET for Raiders-Rams on Thursday Night Football and Ravens-Steelers Sunday in Week 14.
The 6-point teaser odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, December 8th at 1: p.m. ET for Raiders-Rams on Thursday Night Football and Ravens-Steelers Sunday in Week 14.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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