Diamondbacks vs. Brewers, 7:40 ET

The Brewers were many people’s pick to win the NL Central (not me personally, I figured the Cardinals were the team to beat). The Diamondbacks were a team that was expected to be one of the worst in the league. Now they close the season with each other and are both going to start the offseason in just days.

Zac Gallen is still in the top-10 for ERA and likely can finish there on the season. After some magnificent stretches of baseball and scoreless streaks, he gets the opportunity to close the season out with one last good performance. He was so good in August that September was bound to be a bit of a regression, but almost everyone would take the month he turned in. Over five September starts, he allowed eight earned runs over 33.1 innings. He has posted a quality start in nine of his last ten starts. It really doesn’t matter who he faces either, he is pitching very well against anyone – for example, my guess for the World Series matchup (Dodgers and Astros) are the last two teams he faced he allowed just three earned runs over 15 innings. He also faced the Brewers once last month and allowed only two hits and no runs over seven innings.

Eric Lauer has been solid for the Brewers at home on the year. He’s been good overall, but at home, he has a 2.78 ERA. He has allowed 10 home runs in Milwaukee and 17 on the road. September wasn’t pretty for him though. In four starts, he was only able to go 17 innings and he allowed 11 earned runs. In fairness to him, he allowed seven runs in one start. His most recent home start was against the Marlins, a game that saw him go five innings and allow just one hit and nine strikeouts. The comfort of home for him is real.

I don’t know that the Diamondbacks are a lock to win this game, but I do think the under is the only way to look at this game. I’m going to take the under 7 at -125. It is a bit juicer than I like, but I do prefer this play over the under 6.5. Obviously, you need 6 or fewer runs to win either way, but at least seven runs allows for a push.

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Written by David Troy

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