Three Observations About College Football National Title Odds

Now that we’ve rounded the Thanksgiving corner, we are entering the final stretch of the College Football Playoff race and a winnowing field of potential national champions. Here are the current odds for who will win the championship over at our partners at FanDuel:

Some core observations:

We all could have surmised that Alabama would be the odds-on favorites. They’re a perennial powerhouse. Nick Saban is a machine so robust that even in his absence his team waxed their Auburn rivals 42-13 in the Iron Bowl. Their closest margin of victory so far this season is a 17-point win over Georgia. Mac Jones has thrown for nearly 350 yards per game and has the highest total QBR in the country at 95.5.

The odds don’t much care about Notre Dame beating Clemson without Trevor Lawrence. In all likelihood, Clemson and Notre Dame will meet again in the ACC title game, and the odds imply that Clemson should have more than an 80 percent chance to win it. If you think Brian Kelly, Ian Book, and the Fighting Irish have a better shot at cracking Clemson, then there’s good value here.

The odds have majorly dinged Ohio State over COVID-19 uncertainty. Eighteen days ago, Ohio State was +200 to win the national title on FanDuel. However, right now their season is on the brink because they will be ineligible for the Big Ten Championship Game if they miss one more game. I’ve argued that the Big Ten should change the rules if Ohio State (4-0) cannot suit up against Michigan State this weekend, as Ohio State has already beaten Indiana and every other Big Ten East team has at least two losses.

My prediction is that, when this all shakes out, Ohio State will be in the College Football Playoff, so I like their value here.

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Written by Ryan Glasspiegel

Ryan Glasspiegel grew up in Connecticut, graduated from University of Wisconsin-Madison, and lives in Chicago. Before OutKick, he wrote for Sports Illustrated and The Big Lead. He enjoys expensive bourbon and cheap beer.

3 Comments

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  1. Someone needs to explain why a 5 or 6 game OSU team deserves to be in a playoff with SEC/ACC teams that have played 10 or 11. Because in lieu ot a non-existant reason, OSU doesn’t belong im the playoff. Neither does an undefeated Washington/USC. You don’t get to play that many less games of a violent attritional sport and play for a title. That’s called ‘bullshit’.

  2. Alabama is not the “Odds-On” favorite, nor should anybody have surmised that they would be. They are the favorites, but at +135, the odds are very much against them, not on them. In order to be the odds on favorite, they would have to be -101 or better.

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