3 Observations About College Football Championship Odds

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We are headed down the stretch towards conference championship games and the College Football Playoffs. Here are the current odds for the national champion over at our partners at FanDuel:

My quick thoughts:

1) Alabama had a big positive move from +135 a week ago to -105 today. Nick Saban has now had such sustained dominance at Alabama that it’s almost boring to talk about, but you really have to marvel that, in his late sixties, he has pivoted his philosophy and now emphasizes offense over defense. Look at the players they’ve LOST on offense, while still crushing it:

Those top 15 picks were quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, tackle Jedrick Wills, and wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy.

2) Ohio State weirdly depreciated from last week. They were +450 a week ago and are +550 now. I don’t get that at all. Last week, there was some doubt about whether they would get their game in against Michigan State — and what that would have meant for Big Ten title game eligibility. But they did play, and they beat the Spartans decisively. By the Big Ten’s current rules, Ohio State still needs Michigan to be able to play them this week in order to qualify for the championship game. However, if Michigan bails, it’s likely that the Big Ten relaxes its rules — especially after Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez has twice lobbied publicly to do so.

3) Florida’s path to the College Football Playoff is straightforward — beat LSU this Saturday and then beat Alabama in the SEC title game. The latter is obviously a considerable challenge, but at least they control their own destiny. Texas A&M needs some help. They need to beat Tennessee in two weeks, for Alabama to beat Florida, and for one of the following:

  • Notre Dame beats Clemson (meaning Clemson has two losses, and is out)
  • Clemson crushes Notre Dame (invalidating Notre Dame’s win over Clemson when Trevor Lawrence was out)
  • Ohio State loses to Michigan or Northwestern

Texas A&M’s most likely path appears to be the route of the ACC getting just one team in, but they will also have their eye on the Big Ten.

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Written by Ryan Glasspiegel

Ryan Glasspiegel grew up in Connecticut, graduated from University of Wisconsin-Madison, and lives in Chicago. Before OutKick, he wrote for Sports Illustrated and The Big Lead. He enjoys expensive bourbon and cheap beer.

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