Trump Dominating Early 2024 Primary Poll; DeSantis the Best Option?

With former President Donald Trump plotting his next move in Mar-a-Lago, the Republican Party back in Washington is left without a direction forward. While many have advised the party to move past Trump, the numbers show that most Republican voters remain hopeful Trump will return to the White House in four years.

Politico’s early-look at the 2024 primary poll shows Trump well ahead of other potential GOP candidates, receiving over 50%.

Trump was expected to lead polling early, as his built-in base is stronger than any current politician and he just recorded over 74 million votes in the election. That said, should Republicans take back the White House in 2024, the party will need to perform better in states Trump lost to President Joe Biden, including Georgia and Arizona. Trump may be the current top choice among GOP voters, but there’s some doubt he’d be the best candidate to defeat Biden in a general election.

Looking over the rest of the list, there’s a chance, even a good one, the 2024 Republican nominee isn’t listed above. Ben Shapiro referred back to a similar early-look at the 2016 primary:

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ omission is puzzling. If Trump isn’t the nominee, there could be a great divide among Republicans, with half wanting a candidate to continue Trump’s agenda and the other half wanting to turn the page. DeSantis, as of now, is most likely to appeal to both sides of the party. COVID hurt the image of many politicians — it cost Trump the election — but at least among Republicans, DeSantis’ handling of the virus has bolstered his national popularity.

Should DeSantis throw his hat in the race, he’d come in as an established name with more gravitas than, say, former Vice President Mike Pence.

Nikki Haley could be among the most aggressive candidates early, meaning her 6% could quickly move up or down.

As these polls and lists update, I predict that Missouri Senator Josh Hawley will move up. His 1% is low, especially since it ranks behind Mitt Romney, whom I don’t consider a viable candidate at this point.

The world could change a few different times between now and 2024, but if Trump runs in 2024 — I have some doubts he will — it will be an uphill battle for another Republican to take him down.

Written by Bobby Burack

Bobby Burack covers media, politics, and sports at OutKick.


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  1. Dont forget the wild cards. Which states change their laws with no legislations, dominion machines, the USPS, judges that reject all lawsuits, poll watchers kicking out other poll watchers, and Covid 2024.

  2. This poll is a joke. Less than 2000 registered voters polled (not likely voters which is more accurate). Interviews were conducted online. Also, Mitt Romney? He has no chance. Also, do people really want Don Jr. to run? I have no issue with him trying his hand at politics, but president?

    • It has to be Desantis or Noem.

      I voted for Trump. Donald Trump being in the office exposed to a lot of people how *absurdly DISHONEST* the entire media complex was (as NPR and PBS forfeited the appearance of being non-partisan).

      I respect Trump for having the stones to counter punching against the dishonesty. But it needs to be someone else in 2024. I don’t want a version of Trump that is 4 years older furiously tweeting LAW AND ORDER as our cities get smashed to the ground by mindless leftist goons. You don’t/can’t govern from twitter.

  3. I’m with Adrian, Desantis and Noem. She’s a good looking badass. Both have run successful states. I like Pompeo, , Hawley, Tim Scott, and Cotton as well. Fuck Romney. He’s an elitist, spoiled swamp turd RINO.

  4. Unless they fix this mail in voting thing it won’t really matter which republican runs they won’t win sad to say at the moment our voting system at the prez level is broken and full of fraud. I do like Noem she is the real deal and would continue those great policies of Trump

    • Totally agree on Mail-in voting. That should never be allowed again. It literally cost Trump this election and bringing our election system up to date with the 21st century should be priority 1a for the RNC between now and 2024. Disney invented the Fast Pass to efficiently handle 77 million visitors per year visiting Disney World & Land from all over the world. If they can do that it can be done for an election.

  5. DeSantis has been consistent in saying his only plan is to be the Florida governor. He’d run for a second term in 2022 I think. That may be the best approach so he can secure Florida’s vote. He could the run in 2028. There are very few solid candidates among the primary options. Besides Trump, Cruz and Hawley are the only two on there I’d trust not to cave to the Swamp. I think Hawley may be the best candidate overall, and Trump should put all his power and support behind him.

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