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It all comes down to this. We’ve got a winner-take-all Game 3 Monday in the 2023 Men’s College World Series (MCWS) between the 2-seed Florida Gators (1-1) and 5-seed LSU Tigers (1-1).
LSU won the MCWS opener in a 4-3 in 11-inning nail-biter Saturday. The Tigers got an 8-inning, 17-K gem from starting RHP Ty Floyd. Floyd allowed just 3 ERs and Tigers DH Cade Beloso hit a go-ahead HR in the top of the 11th.
Florida rallied back with a 24-4 beatdown of LSU in Game 2 of the MCWS. The Gators crushed 6 HRs vs. the Tigers, which includes a 2-HR and 5-RBI outing by 1B Jac Caglianone who will most likely be Florida’s Game 3 starter.
LSU vs. Florida Men’s College World Series Game 3 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- First pitch: 7:00 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska.
First of all, I bet the LSU Tigers (+380) at the beginning of the 2023 MCWS. “Hedging” is for gardeners and I don’t have enough exposure on this Men’s College World Series to bet Florida in Game 3. I.e. I’m “letting it ride”.
It’s generally smart to play the UNDER in clinch-games (aka nut-crunching time) for all team sports. The public loves to bet Overs because of which typically sportsbooks are rooting for UNDERs in championship games.
Per VSIN, more than 60% of the action (money and bets placed) at DraftKings is on the Over for Game 3 of the Men’s College World Series. Betting the UNDER fades the public and recency bias.
LSU-Florida combined for 28 runs in Game 2 of the MCWS. Plus, the Tigers were 4th in OPS nationally during the regular season and the Gators were 14th, according to D1Baseball.com.
Eight of the last 10 final MCWS games have combined for fewer than nine runs, including Florida’s 6-1 win over LSU to clinch the 2017 title. One of those Men’s College World Series finales landed on exactly 9 runs.
Furthermore, LSU’s previous five MCWS games were 0-4-1 Over/Under (O/U) vs. a total of 9 runs prior to Game 2 Sunday. Florida is 3-6-3 O/U vs. a 9-run total in this 2023 NCAA Division I baseball tournament.
Also, I expect to see a few innings out of LSU ace Paul Skenes. He dominated the Wake Forest Demon Deacons to advance to the MCWS championship against Florida. Skenes pitched 8-scoreless innings vs. Wake Forest with a 9/1 K/BB rate.
He is a lock to be selected in the top-three of the upcoming MLB draft. Skenes is one of the most highly-touted pitching prospects since Stephen Strasburg. Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU for an opportunity to win the national championship.
The bottom line is title games tend to be tighter and both teams will have most of their best arms available in this do-or-die Game 3 Monday.
BET: UNDER 9 (-110) in Florida-LSU Game 3 of the 2023 MCWS
Gambling strategy: Wait until closer to the first pitch before betting the UNDER since more action is on the Over. Hopefully we can get a 9.5-run total by being patient.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.