El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba in Playa del Carmen, Mexico hosts the 2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. This is the 7th event on the PGA Tour schedule and El Camaleón is a par 71 that plays at 7,034 yards.
Reigning back-to-back Mayakoba champion Viktor Hovland (No. 11 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR)) returns to try and threepeat.
Other notables in the field include 2022 Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (No. 2 in OWGR), 2021 Open Champion Collin Morikawa (No. 9), and Tony Finau (No. 14).
I skipped last week’s 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship because it was a weak field and I was bogged down with handicapping the NFL, MLB postseason, and the start of the NBA regular season.
But, make no mistake, the 2022 CJ Cup was a bloodbath for ya boy, and I wanted to take the week to recover. None of my outrights or picks to place cashed and I split my two head-to-heads.
My 2022-23 PGA Tour balance is now -0.5 units and the recap of my 2022 CJ Cup action is at the bottom.
Mayakoba ‘3 Amigos’
- All stats are provided by FantasyNational.com unless otherwise noted.
While Mayakoba is a short course, there are a lot of penalty areas so golfers need to be accurate off the tee and leave the driver in the bag. Golfers will be using wedges and mid-irons to hit onto soft Paspalum greens.
The key stats I looked at when shopping for golfers at the Mayakoba include Strokes Gained (SG): Ball striking (BS), SG: Approach (APP), Good Drives Gained, Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained, and Proximity (PROX): 100-150.
Comp courses mixed into my Mayakoba stat model are TPC Sawgrass, TPC Potomac, TPC River Highlands, TPC Twin Cities, Muirfield Village Golf Club, Waialae Country Club, and Harbour Town Golf Links
According to my key stat model, Hoge is the top-ranked golfer in this field. Hoge is 6th in SG: BS, 3rd in SG: APP, 8th in both Good Drives Gained and BoB Gained, and 1st in PROX: 125-150.
Hoge has the 2nd-best SG in this field over the last five events (according to DataGolf.com) with a 13th-place at the TOUR Championship, Fortinet Championship, Shriners Children’s Open, ZOZO Championship, and CJ Cup.
Mayakoba is a “birdie fest” and 20-under is the average score of the last five winners. Hoge is 5th in SG with easy scoring conditions.
Lastly, El Camaleón has slow greens that even the playing field in putting and Hoge has been hot with the putter. Hoge is gaining +2.2 strokes on the greens over his last five events.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Tom Hoge odds:
- Win: (0.25u: +3000)
- Top-5: (0.25u: +450)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +200)
Henley has missed the cut in two of his four Mayakoba appearances but is No.1 in SG at the comp courses used and SG: Tee-to-Green at courses 7,200 yards or less.
More importantly, Henley leads the field in SG: APP over the last 75 rounds. Henley also ranks 6th or better in PROX: 100-150, BoB Gained, and SG: BS.
We are getting a good price on Henley because of missed cuts in two of his last four events this year and two of his last four Mayakobas. But, Henley is 4th in SG in easy scoring conditions and his game fits El Camaleón.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Russell Henley odds:
- Win: (0.25u: +4500)
- Top-5: (0.25u: +1000)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +550)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +230)
Billy Ho has finished in the top 10 in his last three tourneys, all in difficult fields: T7 at the CJ Cup, T10 at the European Tour’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and T9 in the BMW PGA Championship.
Also, Horschel is 10th in my custom stat model, 2nd in this field for SG in the last 50 rounds at Mayakoba, and 2nd in SG at the comps courses used.
He finished 5th in the 2020 Mayakoba, 8th in the 2019 Mayakoba, and won the 2022 Memorial Tournament (Muirfield).
Finally, Horschel is picking up strokes in the five key metrics over his last 10 events: Off-the-tee, around-the-green, T2G, APP, and putting.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Billy Horschel odds:
- Win: (0.5u: +1600)
- Top-5: (0.5u: +350)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +175)
Aaron Wise (-130) vs. Maverick McNealy
Wise ranks 5th in my key stat model and McNealy ranks 72nd. Again, Mayakoba has a lot of penalty areas along the fairways and McNealy is 99th in this field in Good Drives Gained.
Also, McNealy has finished 18th or better in his last three events because he’s red-hot with the putter. But, Wise is 11th in this field for SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds.
Wise is the 7th-best ball striker in this field and 9th in PROX: 125-150 while McNealy is 52nd in SG: BS and 121st in PROX: 125-150.
Viktor Hovland (+105) vs. Scottie Scheffler
Hovland is the 2nd-best golfer according to my numbers and Scheffler is 3rd. He outranks Scheffler in SG: BS, APP, PROX: 125-125, and Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500. Three of Mayakoba’s four toughest holes are Par 4s within 450-500.
Furthermore, Hovland is trending better than Scheffler over the last 24 rounds. He has more SG at comp courses used and SG at courses less than 7,200 yards over the last 50 rounds.
Finally, Hovland is getting plus money even though he is Mayakoba’s reigning two-time champion because Scheffler is OWGR’s 2nd-ranked player.
Final Bet Slip
- Tom Hoge: Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (1u)
- Russell Henley: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.5u)
- Billy Horschel: Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (1u)
- Aaron Wise (-130) > Maverick McNealy (1u)
- Viktor Hovland (+105) > Scottie Scheffler (1u)
2022 CJ Cup recap (-6.0u)
Win & Picks To Place
- Shane Lowry (T23): Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (-2u) ❌
- Cameron Young (T23): Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (-1.5u) ❌
- Viktor Hovland (T21): Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (-1.5u) ❌
- Hideki Matsuyama (T34), added via Twitter: Win, Top-10 & Top-20 ( -1u) ❌
- Rory McIlroy🥇 > Jon Rahm (+1.25) ✅
- Emiliano Grillo > Maverick McNealy (-1.25u) ❌
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