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TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas hosts the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open Thursday, Oct. 6. The Shriners is one of the easiest Par 71 events on the Tour and plays at 7,255 yards.
Sungjae Im (19th in the Official World Golf Rankings) returns to defend his title vs. a 144-golfer field featuring 2021 FedEx and 2017 Shriners champion Patrick Cantlay (ranked 4th). Im went ballistic in the final round to win last year’s Shriner’s with 9-under on Sunday.
The total grade of my bet slip for last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship is +4.2 units (u). The recap of my Sanderson action is at the bottom.
My 2022-23 PGA Tour bankroll is still -1.18u.
Shriners ‘Horses For The Course’
- All stats are provided by FantasyNational.com unless otherwise noted.
This is my favorite, favorite on the board. Wise ranks 2nd in this field on my key stats model over the last 50 rounds and the best Strokes Gained (SG): Total in the fall swing of the PGA Tour.
He’s the third-best iron player in the field, best in Proximity (PROX): 200-plus, ninth in SG: Par 5 and seventh in Birdies-or-Better Gained. Three of the four easiest holes of the TPC Summerlin at Par 5s and Wise could gain strokes on Par 5s.
The Shriners is typically a birdie-fest and Wise is fifth in SG: Total at courses with easy scoring conditions. He is the seventh-best player in this field over the last five events per DataGolf.com.
Wise finished eighth in last year’s Shriners, 15th in 2018 and 10th in 2016. The way he’s playing lately, it feels like Wise is going to be in the mix on Sunday.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Aaron Wise odds:
- Win: (0.2u: +1800)
- Top-5: (0.25u: +330)
- Top-10: (0.75u: +165)
If you remove the links-style PGA Tour events at the end of last season, Pereira is the best irons player in this field. In fact, Pereira is the best golfer in this field according to my numbers.
Over the last 50 rounds, Pereira is first in this field for SG: Approach (App), 10th in PROX: 100-150 yards. The PROX stat was included in my
There are six Par 4 holes within 400-450 yards at the Shriners and Pereira is first in Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450.
Also, three of the four toughest holes at the Summerlin are Par 3’s and Pereira ranks 17th in this field for SG: Par 3.
Pereira is taking sharp action at the Shriners. Pereira’s odds to win the event opened at +6600 and have been steamed down to +5000.
Finally, last season was Pereira’s rookie year and he played well during the fall swing but struggled on the greens. Pereira gained 5.9 strokes on the field in Tee-to-Green (T2G) and 5.2 SG: APP at last year’s Shriners. If Pereira can hit a couple of putts this year he could win this event.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Mito Pereira odds:
- Win: (0.125u: +5000)
- Top-5: (0.125u: +900)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +400)
- Top-20: (0.75u: +200)
Good ole Homeless Hubbs was my last man out at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship and it cost me money.
Hubbard finished fifth at the Sanderson because his putter let him down on the back nine. But, Bent grass is Hubbard’s best putting surface, which makes up TPC Summerlin’s greens.
Also, Iron play is more important at the Shriners and Hubbard finished second in SG: App at the Sanderson and is second vs. the field over the last 50 rounds.
Hubbard is the fourth-best golfer in the field per my numbers but DraftKings Sportsbook gives him the 35th-best odds to win the Shriners. That, my friends, is value.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and bet the following Mark Hubbard odds:
- Win: (0.125u: +8000)
- Top-5: (0.125u: +1400)
- Top-10: (0.5u: +700)
- Top-20: (0.5u: +300)
Sungjae Im (+125) vs. Patrick Cantlay
Both of these guys crush TPC Summerlin but Im is +money, ranks higher on my key stats, dominated this course last year and is playing well entering the Shriners.
Im is better by SG: App, SG: Par 3, Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 and Freeways Gained over the last 50 rounds. Since TPC Summerlin is a second-shot course, Im’s consistency Off-the-Tee (OTT) is appealing.
Furthermore, Im is playing better over his last 5 events, according to DataGolf.com. Im is +1.01 SG vs. his expectations while Cantlay is just +0.17 vs. his expectations.
Taylor Pendrith (-110) vs. Alex Noren
I’m tailing Pregame.com’s Will Doctor with this pick because he pointed out an obvious travel and weather angle in the Pendrith-Noren H2H on his “Dream Preview” Shriners preview podcast.
Noren is trending better per DataGolf.com after a second-place finish on the European Tour’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at the Old Course in St. Andrews, Scotland this past weekend.
But, Noren is traveling roughly 5,000 miles within 72 hours to play a golf tournament in a completely different climate. The Dunhill had winter-like conditions whereas the Shriners is in hot-ass Las Vegas.
This is Noren’s first Shriners since he’s usually overseas playing on the European Tour at this time of the year. Under these conditions, I’d take pretty much any golfer in this field over Noren.
Also, Pendrith is much better at approach shots than Noren. Pendrith ranks 27th in this field for SG: App while Noren is 60th and 104th in PROX: 100-125 and 126th in PROX: 200-plus over the last 50 rounds.
Final Bet Slip
- Aaron Wise: Win, Top-5 & Top-10 (1.2u)
- Mito Pereira: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.5u)
- Mark Hubbard: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (1.25u)
- Sungjae Im (+100) > Patrick Cantlay (1.25u)
- Taylor Pendrith (-110) > Alex Noren (1.25u)
Sanderson Farms Championship Recap
Win & Picks To Place
- Emiliano Grillo: (+4.3u)💰
- Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20✅
- Scott Stallings: (+0.525u)💰
- Win, Top-5 & Top-10❌
- Russell Henley: Win, Top-5, Top-10 & Top-20 (-2u)❌
- Kevin Streelman (added via Twitter): Win & Top-20 (-0.625u)❌
- Denny McCarthy > Sahith Theegala (+1u)✅
- Keegan Bradley > Taylor Montgomery (+1u)✅
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.