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The Home Run Derby launches tonight in Los Angeles. While Dodgers Stadium isn’t typically known for home runs during night games, there will be no lack of long balls tonight. Here is the breakdown of the Derby and the bets I plan to make. One caveat that I feel I need to share here – I’m not putting much on any of these, this is just for a little extra fun and maybe will be enough money to take my family out to dinner or something.
I’m finding the best odds on DraftKings, so unless specified otherwise, that’s where you’ll find these.
Pete Alonso is easily the best candidate to win, he’s already brought home two trophies and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t continue his run tonight. There are, of course, some worthy opponents/challengers. Kyle Schwarber leads all hitters tonight with 29 first-half home runs. He also was in the finals against Bryce Harper in Washington a few years ago. So, both of these guys know what it takes to win, or at least go deep into the tournament. Juan Soto is a great hitter overall, he’s participated in the past and had a memorable showdown against Ohtani last year. Those three players have the best odds, and honestly, I think they are the only three with a real chance to win.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is great and has the power to get it done, but I think it will be a challenge for him to beat everyone he needs to in order to make it to the top of the heap. Julio Rodriguez is the newcomer and has a lot of pop, but I feel like most people usually need a Derby under their belt to win. Seager is a former Dodger so should be the most used to the environment. But, I don’t know that he will have the ability to take home the crown. Oh, they also invited Jose Ramirez and Albert Pujols. Ramirez is obviously a great hitter, but Pujols was invited… for some reason.
As far as a winner, I think Alonso wins again, he seems to care about the Derby, if he didn’t why bother going for it once again? At just +200, no thanks. I don’t think there is value. I’m not trying to discourage you from taking it. He also has the best path to get to the Finals. I think he beats Acuna with ease, and I’d take him over Seager or Julio Rodriguez. Schwarber has to beat Soto in the second round before taking on Alonso in the final. Just seems like a harder path. I’m going to play Alonso over Schwarber at +600 and Alonso over Soto at +700. I like both of those better than betting Alonso straight.
Juan Soto over 470.5 longest home run -110 and longest home run from any player at +400. Soto hit a 520 ft bomb in last year’s derby, breaking the record for longest homer ever. The guy can absolutely mash the ball, so let’s take these two bets as well.
For most home runs in the first round, I could see Pete Alonso having to hit a bunch against Acuna, he could have the win at +380. That’s the only other bet I’ll make. I’ll reiterate this here: I am playing these for fun and at less value than almost anything else I’d bet all season. Enjoy it, and if we make some money on this, great!