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The penultimate event of the PGA season — 2022 BMW Championship — tees off Thursday, August 18 at the Wilmington Country Club in Delaware.
The BMW has no cut and the top 70 golfers in the FedExCup standings compete for 30 spots in next week’s TOUR Championship to become the 2022-23 FedExCup Champion.
This will be the 1st-ever PGA Tour at the Wilmington Country Club so there isn’t a lot of data on this course. The BMW will play at the South Course, which is a par 71 stretching 7,534 yards.
My approach to betting on golf is similar to an afternoon at the racetrack. If I see a horse for the course while handicapping a PGA event, I’ll take that thoroughbred to Win, Place and Show.
For the BMW, I’m going to the window with Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele to win and finish top 5 and top 10.
Young’s game is perfect for the Wilmington Country Club. The South Course is one of the longest courses on Tour and Young crushes the ball off-the-tee (OTT). He’s one of the few golfers in the world that can overpower this long course.
Young is 2nd in the field for SG: OTT with the 3rd-longest driving distance. Dominance OTT sets Young up for easy 2nd looks and explains him having the closest hole proximity on approach shots.
Also, there are six Par 4s from 400-450 yards. Young has the 6th-best Par 4 efficiency within that yardage over his last 50 rounds.
We are getting Young at a bargain bin price due to his underwhelming 31st-place finish in last week’s FedEx St. Jude’s Championship. But, Young had the 2nd-most Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-to-Green (T2G) in the St. Jude’s behind the winner, Will Zalatoris.
The South Course at Wilmington Country Club has large Bentgrass greens. Young picked up 3.4 strokes putting in his 2nd-place finish in the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month. The Detroit Golf Club —which hosts the Rocket Mortgage Classic— also has Bentgrass greens.
Finally, Young has won the most money in a season without a victory and is due for a breakthrough win. He has seven top-3 finishes this season including a 2nd at the 2022 Open Championship and a 3rd at the 2022 PGA Championship.
- $25 to win (+2500) for a $625 profit at DraftKings Sportsbook
- $50 to top 5 (+400) for a $200 profit
- $100 to top 10 (+230) for a $230 profit
Wilmington Country Club is a “ball striker’s paradise” and Morikawa has the 2nd-best SG: Ball-striking over his last 100 rounds. Also, Morikawa has elite iron-play and ranks 3rd in SG: Approach (APP) this season.
More importantly, Morikawa shows out in big events and the BMW is the 2nd round of the FedExCup Playoffs. He has six top-10 finishes in 12 career majors. Morikawa is going for a cheap price because he’s having a down year by his lofty standards.
But, a down year for Morikawa is a career year for most Tour golfers. He’s been top-10 in seven events this season including 5th-place finishes at the U.S. Open, Masters and last week’s St. Jude’s.
In fact, Morikawa flirted with contending at the St. Jude Championship but missed a few makable putts. If Morikawa just has a so-so-putting performance at the BMW, he’ll be in the mix on the weekend.
- $25 to win (+2000) for a $500 profit at DraftKings Sportsbook
- $50 to top 5 (+350) for a $175 profit
- $100 to top 10 (+225) for a $225 profit
Speaking of “showing up for big events”, no one is more consistent than Schauffele vs. tough fields. Schauffele has 15 top-20 finishes in his 22 career majors. He’s picked up at least 1 stroke in the five most important golf stats (OTT, T2G, APP, around-the-green and putting) in his last 10 events.
On top of that, the South Course has the 2nd-largest greens of any PGA course this season and 81 bunkers. Schauffele is 2nd in 3-putt avoidance and Sand Saves in this field over the last 100 rounds, per FantasyNational.com.
The bottom line is that Schauffele should be the 3rd-favorite to win the BMW according to my numbers but FanDuel lists him at the 10th-best odds. Schauffele is 5th in SG over his last 24 rounds, 4th in SG at events with no cut and SG: T2G at courses longer than 7,400 yards.
- $25 to win (+2000) for a $500 profit at FanDuel Sportsbook
- $50 to top 5 (+410) for a $205 profit
- $100 to top 10 (+185) for a $185 profit