Betting the 2021 Home Run Derby

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Ah, the Home Run Derby. Arguably the best event at any All-Star Game festivity, the Home Run Derby used to feature the best sluggers in the majors. Now, it has the first-half AL MVP, Shohei Ohtani, and some other good players/names, but nothing of the level of the years with Griffey and Bonds. Enough reminiscing though, this should be fun as the ball travels through Coors Field and we have an opportunity to make some money if we pick the right masher. 

There was one report saying that Ohtani has more money bet on him to win than all of the other contestants combined. I’m going contrarian on this one and saying that he will not be the winner. He has a ridiculous amount of home runs on the season already (32) but that doesn’t mean anything for this contest. Pete Alonso in 2019 didn’t lead the league in home runs before the All-Star break, but did win the trophy so there is some precedent that indicates that Ohtani could be the winner. 

Go back a year further, to 2018, when the game was in Washington. Bryce Harper won in front of his hometown crowd. This year, the hometown boy is Trevor Story, who also might be on his way out, just as Harper was. I like Story to feel comfortable in his own stadium and being the player that makes it out of his side of the bracket. He isn’t the favorite to beat Gallo, and there needs to be respect for Gallo as he is a masher, but I’m taking Story to beat him at +148.

My pick to win is Juan Soto. I think he is an absolute beast and although he has only hit 11 home runs this season, he has the strength to consistently put them out of the park. He has arguably the hardest path there facing Ohtani first, and then probably Pete Alonso. There really isn’t a reason other than I think his swing is built for this contest and I think outside of Ohtani (who has never played at Coors) is the best overall hitter in this competition. Soto has two home runs in six games at Coors, and Alonso has three home runs in six games. I’m playing Soto at +800, but wouldn’t be ashamed of playing Alonso at +450 either. 

If I had to pick an exact bracket, I’m going as follows: 

Written by OutKick Bets


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